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What LAB has not factored in is that TMay’s successor will get a huge polling boost and won’t surely be as bad

9/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Great news for the Tories from @StephenKB Team Corbyn is complacent about the polls & thinks that next time will be like last time https://t.co/XrhciDtzI7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2018 A new CON leader will be a very different proposition for Corbyn The New Statesman’s Stephen Bush has an excellent piece linked to above on how the red team is viewing their little polling hiccup. It is staggeringly complacent with some in the party, apparently, believing that because…

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Trump’s “hairstyle” – not a bet that tempts me but fun all the same

8/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betway now offering odds on Trump's new hairstyle now the secrets of his current one have been highlighted pic.twitter.com/NSPlwpwo64 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2018

Those from elite schools continue to dominate the betting to succeed state-educated Theresa

8/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

It is perhaps worth remembering that for a 40 year period, until David Cameron was elected, the Tories made a point of choosing as leaders those who were from more humble backgrounds. So general election winners Heath, Thatcher, and Major all went to state schools – the latter not even going to university. How things look so differently now as we contemplate who will succeed TMay who went to what is now a comprehensive near Oxford. Rees-Mogg and Johnson, first…

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Theresa’s Tories take a 4 point lead with YouGov – their best position in any poll since GE2017

8/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Times Maybe Corbyn’s LAB is paying the price for its Brexit ambivalence Threre’s a new YouGov poll in today’s Times that sees a dramatic move to the Tories. The figures are with comparisons on last week: CON 43%+1 LAB 39-3 LD 8+2 As can be seen this has been driven by LAB losing vote share – three points – with the Tories up 1 and Cable’s LDs up 2. Also in the poll TMay extended her lead over Corbyn to…

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What makes people proud to be British by party and Brexit choice

7/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Why the NHS is so politically sensitive The above YouGov polling sets out clearly how important the NHS and the memory of what Britain did during the war are central to national identity. The party splits are not that large and underpin the approach of all parties with the exception of UKIP whose former leader, Mr Farage, made controversial comments about the NHS a few days ago that were picked up and Tweeted up by Trump. Smart politicians shouldn’t attack…

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What the proposed new boundaries would mean if Britain voted as in latest ICM poll

7/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The Electoral Calculus projection based on proposed boundaries And the Electoral Calculus projection on current boundaries Over the next couple of years the boundaries review is going to become a major issue. The final proposals are almost there and to show the effect of them I have taken a projection, based on yesterday’s ICM poll, from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus based on the old boundaries and compared them with the new. As can be seen the Conservatives do better with…

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Remember this cringe making TMay effort from GE17?

7/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Big mistake for LAB to assume that the Tories will be piss-poor again If any CON MPs is still deciding whether or not to send Graham Brady a letter then they should check the above TMay “news conference” from the closing stages of the GE2017 campaign. This is really awful and just about sums up her awkwardness, inability to think on her feet and the struggle she has answering questions from the media – qualities that are so important for…

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The little CON polling flurry has come at a bad time for the leadership plotters

6/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Ideally they need LAB moving forward across the board We are living in a time when much of the talk at Westminster continues to be how many CON MPs have written to Graham Brady, 1922 Committee chair, asking for a vote of confidence to be held on Mrs. May. Once he’s received 48 of these Brady has to immediately set up a leadership ballot. The last time the process was invoked MPs were voting within 24 hours. My guess is…

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