politicalbetting.com

The Electoral Reform Society have modelled how July’s election would have looked under different voting systems, as we can see First Past The Post really flattered Labour. Regretfully they didn’t model using the Alternative Vote which seems a mistake considering Labour uses AV to elect their leaders and the Tories use a form of quasi-AV (the exhaustive ballot) to elect their leaders. Some key stats from the election are The key stats for me is ‘344 seats, out of the…

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TSE

Ladbrokes have a 2025 specials market up and to be honest this appears a good way to contribute to the Ladbrokes bonus fund. If I had to pick I’d go for the 20/1 on the zero by elections and maybe the 6/1 on 1 to 2 by-elections in 2025. TSE

So far Starmer is shaping up as the gravest disappointment since the second season of Westworld but there’s plenty of time for him to turn this around. It is supplementaries like this which explain why Labour are polling in the twenties. TSE

Over the last few days I’ve highlighted how Nigel Farage has become the favourite to be the next Prime Minister which I felt was wrong on a number of levels and the most seats betting market is further proof. The only way I could see Farage becoming Prime Minister after the next general election is if Reform won the most seats (I cannot see if he finished second behind the Tories then the Tories making him PM for example). If…

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Like many I expect Suella Braverman to defect to Reform at some point in the next few months. I try and see the best in people but I consider Braverman a ghastly person and eve ghastlier politician, the sort of person who would switch off somebody’s life support machine just to charge her phone so she could Tweet something political/on the culture wars. If Suella Braverman did defect it would be no great loss to the Tory Party (just look…

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TSE

Yesterday I said there was a chance that Nigel Farage could soon replace Kemi Badenoch as the favourite to be our next Prime Minister and lo and behold it has happened within twenty-four hours. Like those punters who backed Michelle Obama to be the 2024 Democratic Party nominee and/or the winner of the 2024 presidential election I just don’t understand their logic although I am more than happy to take their money. If you are backing Farage in this market…

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