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Labour activists may never stop arguing about 2017. Was it an almost-victory prevented only by centrist sabotage or a dead cat bounce which proved Jeremy Corbyn couldn’t even beat ‘The Maybot’ with several lucky breaks? Whatever it was, it was the 5th most votes the Labour Party has ever won. Corbyn won more votes than Clement Attlee in 1945 or Tony Blair in 2001. Could he win more than Starmer in 2024/25? Actually, he could. Electoral Equations Obviously Corbyn’s result…

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The magic number required to oust Rishi Sunak is not the 52 letters to trigger a vote of confidence in him but the 173 Tory MPs required to vote against Sunakm the chance of the latter happening is as infetismal a Boris Johnson being a declared husband of the century. The general election is taking place on the fourth of July, the sooner these Tory MPs accept that the better, if their plan does work do they really want cancer…

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Longtime readers of PB know much Mike Smithson and I value leader satisfaction ratings. Whilst Starmer’s ratings aren’t historically impressive that really doesn’t matter when Sunak’s and the government’s rating are so dire. Sunak’s decision to call a July election today may turn out to be a date which will live in infamy. TSE

Looking at that polling table it is quite a courageous decision by Rishi Sunak to hold an election with the Tories so far behind in the polls but I am not complaining as I tipped a July election at 20s a few weeks ago. TSE

I tipped July 2024 as the month of the election at 20s a few weeks ago is now down to 2.04. I feel content. TSE

Ladbrokes have a market on who wil the CNN debate scheduled for the end of June and I can see no value in this market. I suspect the response will be a plague on both your houses as the debate will be a bit of a disorganised poo-show and that could lead to either side winning. TSE

I know I was not alone in thinking that the polls would tighten somewhat this year but Labour’s lead has widened so far this year and this finding from Opinium might explain why Labour’s lead hasn’t shrunk and the Tories are facing an extinction level event election result. I am not sure the Tories have time to turn this around. TSE

The end of the SNP hegemony seems to be accelerating under John Swinney’s leadership which seems natural for a party in government for over seventeen years. The only sliver of comfort is that John Swinney is the most favourable politician in Scotland although that could be down to a honeymoon bounce, if that evaporates by the time of the UK wide general election then headline voting figures are likely to prove accurate. What should really worry the SNP are the…

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