Turnout betting

Turnout betting

At the last election turnout was 67.3% and I might expect turnout to be higher at this election as voters mobilise to get the Tories out but I suspect turnout will be lower due to voting ID requirements change. After last year’s locals, Jacob Rees-Mogg admitted those changes were a gerrymander aka voter suppression. Rees-Mogg admitted “Parties that try and gerrymander end up finding their clever scheme comes back to bite them, as, dare I say, we found by insisting…

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The King might bugger up the plans of Sunak

The King might bugger up the plans of Sunak

It seems an unelected head of state is in effect damaging democracy by restricting the dates Sunak can hold an election by being out of the country. But one thing is clear, as has been for a long time, no May election. TSE

Rishi Sunak’s Hall pass

Rishi Sunak’s Hall pass

I am really starting to worry about Rishi Sunak on a personal level, he is utterly deluded if he thinks Susan Hall can win the London mayoralty and help Sunak win the general election. This is a bunker mentality, Sunak is investing a lot of hope, like a former Chancellor of Germany did with Felix Steiner during the Battle for Berlin, and Hall’s victory will save him from the man of steel Sir Keir Starmer’s oncoming Red Army. Bunker mentalities…

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Ayrshire hotelier’s troubles mount

Ayrshire hotelier’s troubles mount

The brain fart by Donald Trump isn’t the first one this campaign from the Ayrshire hotelier and I wonder if it will make him less effective this campaign, the man who came up with insults like little Marco Rubio etc doesn’t have that power. It also makes any criticisms against Biden less effective. More troubling for ‘Billionaire’ Trump is legal difficulties have in a phrase that gets used a lot in Yorkshire left Trump without a pot to piss in….

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And now for something completely different

And now for something completely different

Occasionally you’ll get a poll finding that says either a lot about the client/pollster that commissioned it or says a lot about the Great British public, this questions hits both those sweet spots. There’s four main issues that have bugged me/got me thinking TSE

The paradox that the Tory party cannot currently solve

The paradox that the Tory party cannot currently solve

Picture: This man could hurt the Tories badly How can the Tories now simultaneously appeal to both the Blue Wall and the Red Wall? The Sunday Times are reporting some interesting snippets about the Tories and Reform [Sunak’s election chief Isaac] Levido’s team is anxiously watching Reform’s polling numbers and wondering whether Nigel Farage will return to lead the party. His former pollster, Chris Bruni-Lowe, has told him that if he comes back then Reform, currently polling in the mid-teens, would overtake…

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PM for PM

PM for PM

Both the Telegraph and the Mail are reporting on a plan to install Penny Mordaunt as Prime Minister which has at least underlying logic behind it. As we can see from the latest Ashcroft polling she’s the only Tory who is seen as net asset rather than a net liability. Those deluded* Boris Johnson fans, yes I am looking at the likes of you Nadine Dorries and Dame Andrea Jenkyns, who thought he could make a comeback before the election…

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