June 2018 Local By-Election Summary

June 2018 Local By-Election Summary

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June 2018 Monthly Summary Conservatives 7,657 votes (40.22% -0.91% on last time) winning 8 seats (-2 seats on last time) Labour 4,716 votes (24.77% +5.10% on last time) winning 3 seats (+1 seat on last time) Liberal Democrats 2,998 votes (15.75% +7.59% on last time) winning 4 seats (+3 seats on last time) United Kingdom Independence Party 1,291 votes (6.78% -5.69% on last time) winning 0 seats (-2 seats on last time) Local Independents 1,089 votes (5.72% +0.98% on last…

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Labour continues to struggle in Scotland where it used to hold 41 of the 59 seats

Labour continues to struggle in Scotland where it used to hold 41 of the 59 seats

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But the low-hanging fruit for Corbyn’s party is still there There is a new Scottish poll out this morning and the picture remains gloomy for LAB. As can be seen Panelbase still has the party in third place behind, of course, the SNP and the Conservatives. What makes this particularly disappointing for Labour is that for decades Scotland was the bedrock of the party’a support throughout the UK and its dominance underpinned its parliamentary position. So at both 2005 and…

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Opposition leaders who like Corbyn lose their first General Election hardly ever make it to Prime Minister

Opposition leaders who like Corbyn lose their first General Election hardly ever make it to Prime Minister

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The task for Corbyn is to emulate Ted Heath One of the relatively unusual features of last year’s general election was that the losing main party leader did not quit or was forced out of his job in the aftermath of defeat. This was in the sharp contrast to: Ed Miliband (GE2015) Gordon Brown (GE2010) Michael Howard (GE2005) William Hague (GE2001) John Major (GE1997) Neil kinnock (GE1992) Michael Foot (GE1983) James Callaghan (GE1979) Edward Heath (GE1974 – Oct). In fact…

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So, this errr… Target2 thing. What is it, and why is it spiking, and should I care?

So, this errr… Target2 thing. What is it, and why is it spiking, and should I care?

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https://youtu.be/yLTg1aatqHs With the election of the Lega Nord and Five Star Movement in Italy, Target2 imbalances are growing again. The gap between the creditor nations (mostly Germany and the Netherlands) and the debtors (the PIIGS, less Ireland) is now back at levels last seen at the height of the Eurozone crisis. But wait. What are Target2 balances? Are they the result of Germany’s enormous current account surplus, or is there something else at work? More importantly, should you care about…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters: Pollsters. hedge funds, Heathrow and why is Blair so noisy and Cameron so quiet?

NEW PB/Polling Matters: Pollsters. hedge funds, Heathrow and why is Blair so noisy and Cameron so quiet?

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On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at a recent Bloomberg story investigating links between hedge funds and pollsters on the day of the EU referendum, public opinion on Heathrow and the environment and ask what Blair hopes to achieve with his latest intervention (and why David Cameron seems to be so quiet). Follow this week’s guests Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet

Joe Biden raises doubts about whether he’ll run for White House in 2020

Joe Biden raises doubts about whether he’ll run for White House in 2020

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2nd favourite for Democratic nomination Joe Biden Says He Feels 'Guilty' About Not Wanting to Run for President Because of ‘Charlatan’ Trump https://t.co/U8V0hYXlDn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 27, 2018 Obama’s Vice President for 8 years, Joe Biden, has been talking about the next White House Race and says he “feels guilty” about not wanting to run. Ahead of the 2016 election there was considerable speculation over whether he would run against Hillary Clinton for the nomination. This went on…

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Suddenly Tory cabinet indiscipline moves to the top of the political agenda

Suddenly Tory cabinet indiscipline moves to the top of the political agenda

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Is Tory discipline on the verge of breaking down? https://t.co/ELqftPoehk — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) June 26, 2018 Maybe it was BoJo that started it but very quickly we are seeing leading cabinet figures seeking to set the agenda away from the principle of cabinet collective responsibility. This could be very dangerous for TMay who clearly does not feel she has the strength to sack the rebels. With DefSec, Gavin Williamson, demanding zillions extra for defence the Chief Secretary to the…

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