Meanwhile Corbyn is back as “next PM” favourite on the Betfair exchange
But at 14% chances neither looks very strong And after a wobble 2019 is favourite for TMay’s exit Data from Betdata.io Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
YouGov finds that the number of LAB voters thinking Brexit is wrong reaches new high
How LAB voters in latest YouGov poll are splitting on Brexit. I think the 76% saying Brexit wrong is the highest yet. pic.twitter.com/zPqhI3nttg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 23, 2018 This could add to the pressure on Corby as we move to conference season The big issue within LAB that’s going to cause problems for the leadership at next month’s conference is the pressure for another referendum. It’s been quite amazing that Corbyn has been able to sustain a position…
Irrespective of whether there’s an impeachment move it’s going to be harder for Trump to win again at WH2020
Three points about Trump:1) Virtually no one who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 is for him today;2) About 37% of Trump's 2016 voters are ambivalent about him and are far from hard core;3) Cohen's implication of Trump will have a corrosive effect on those ambivalent Trump voters — Geoff Garin (@geoffgarin) August 22, 2018 Is there value betting that he won’t be re-nominated? It is hard to take any other view than that the last few days have not…
If Corbyn’s LAB can make progress in Scotland there are some easy SNP pickings
Table – Commons Library But recent polls suggest LAB will lose Scottish seats The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, is in Scotland for a big speech at today’s Edinburgh television festival and more importantly to try to revive the party north of the border where under Ed Miliband in 2015 it was virtually wiped out. Then LAB’s Scottish contingent of MPs was reduced from 41 seats to a single MP. At the general election last year some recovery was made and…
Labour Post-Corbyn: Is there hope for Labour’s moderates?
For all the controversy over anti-Semitism and Jeremy Corbyn’s curious selection of international friends, there seems little doubt that Corbyn’s position as Labour leader is secure. Losing a vote of confidence amongst his own MPs by 172 to 40 didn’t dislodge him, and since then his position has been strengthened by the GE2017 campaign. Accusations of anti-Semitism and terrorist sympathies are water off a duck’s back. However, it doesn’t follow that he will remain leader for an extended period. If…
ICM poll: Tories would be worse off if either BoJo or Moggsy succeeds TMay
Tories better off with May than any other leader, poll suggests | Politics | The Guardian https://t.co/gf5TKz7zs9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 22, 2018 And the Washington Post describes TMay as “A Great PM” Those of us who were around following the polls in 2007 remember how the succession of Gordon Brown as Labour leader was going to undermine the red team. Poll after poll found LAB’s position deteriorating when Brown name was mentioned and I certainly took that on…
PB Video Analysis: How To End Illegal Immigration
OK, call me Amerocentric, but this video is really all about the US and illegal immigration. Specifically, in the US more than 3% of people are illegal immigrants, more than twice the level of the UK, four times that of Switzerland, and something absurd relative to Norway. Now, the US has poor people on its Southern border – but probably fewer than Europe has on its. Mexico is as rich as Turkey, and a lot richer than – for example…
An awful amount of excrement has just hit the fan for Trump
BREAKING: Michael Cohen says he was directed to violate campaign law at the direction of a candidate for federal office https://t.co/kVdINYkpI3 pic.twitter.com/xa4XAexv1V — Bloomberg Politics (@bpolitics) August 21, 2018 Prosecutor says purpose of Michael Cohen's payments was to ensure individuals didn't disclose "alleged affairs with the candidate" https://t.co/PonBO1JIy2 — Bloomberg Politics (@bpolitics) August 21, 2018 Besides the $130,000 payment, Cohen admitted to making an illegal contribution of $150,000, which was how much Karen McDougal got from the National Enquirer’s publisher to quash…