Three points about Trump:
1) Virtually no one who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 is for him today;
2) About 37% of Trump's 2016 voters are ambivalent about him and are far from hard core;
3) Cohen's implication of Trump will have a corrosive effect on those ambivalent Trump voters
— Geoff Garin (@geoffgarin) August 22, 2018
Is there value betting that he won’t be re-nominated?
It is hard to take any other view than that the last few days have not helped Donald Trump in his attempt to win the presidency again in 2020.
I’ve highlighted the Tweet above because it broadly set out a key point about the Trump vote last time and whether that will stay with the incumbent. Yes his core will remain solid but there are other voters as well. It is the ambivalent ones that Mr trump has most to worry about and the more this saga continues the more tricky it will be for him to navigate.
So what about the betting? It’s important to note that impeachment is something that the House of Representatives does and getting rid of the President is in the hands of the Senate. It is becoming increasingly likely that the midterms in November will lead to the Democrats taking the house but because of the Senate seats that are up this year it is going to be mighty difficult for the upper house to stay in anything other than Republican hands.
I’m not convinced that Trump would go of his own accord and I think that the chances of him surviving till the end of his first term are quite high. That brings us to the 2020 presidential election campaign and the first thing he has to do, of course, is win the nomination for his party.
These latest developments might just encourage some presidential hopefuls for the Republican party to put their hats into the ring and be ready to challenge the incumbent.
A key factor in the primary process is that in many states voters can choose which party primary election to take part in. That’s the rule that applies in New Hampshire and you could see independents and Democrats voting for the most likely stop-Trump contender.
New Hampshire is, of course, the state that traditionally has the first full primary.
A few weeks ago I suggested here that the best value bet for the next presidential election was laying Trump in the nomination market. For non-punters this means that you are betting against him being re-nominated. What’s good about this is that the odds are still very strongly in Trumps favour and that you can get a pretty good price.
When I raised this last month the but I got was at 1.3 on Betfair which works out at about 77%% chance of him being read nominated. That’s now moved up to 1.6 a 62.5% I think there’s still value in the market.