The Buckingham constituency where there must be a high chance of a by-election within 18 months

The Buckingham constituency where there must be a high chance of a by-election within 18 months

There’s not been a “normal” election here since GE2005 One of the intriguing facets of the current speculation over the Speaker, John Bercow, is that there could be a by-election within the next year and a half in the Buckingham parliamentary constituency. There were reports at the weekend that Mr Bercow has indicated to friends that he plans to stand down in 2019 though there could be something earlier if the pressure on him continues. If he does step aside…

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Hard to see how insulting key groups of voters helps LAB’s cause – but hey, the Gammon insulters don’t seem to care

Hard to see how insulting key groups of voters helps LAB’s cause – but hey, the Gammon insulters don’t seem to care

The ‘gammon’ insult is fuelled by class hatred. It expresses the visceral contempt felt by bourgeois Corbynistas for people further down the social ladder. We now know how thoroughly Labour has been captured by a new elite. Brendan O’Neill in @spectator https://t.co/DCGrYh5f8k — spiked (@spikedonline) May 14, 2018 No, "gammon" is not a racist or a classist slur. https://t.co/mFropaEmgm pic.twitter.com/nc1bMNKfnt — Owen Jones? (@OwenJones84) May 14, 2018 Remember, you can’t serve both god and gammon. — Tim Stanley (@timothy_stanley) May…

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If punters are right we could have passed peak Jacob Rees-Mogg

If punters are right we could have passed peak Jacob Rees-Mogg

Ever since the local elections last week there has been talk of moving on from “Peak Corbyn”. Maybe? But what about “Peak Rees-Mogg? If punters are correct and the betting movements are indicative there is less certainty about they he will succeed Mrs May as next prime minister. The chart above shows the last 5 months of market moves on the Betfair Theresa May successor as prime minister market. As can be seen Rees-Mogg has been the favourite for several…

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Teams from Remain areas once again dominated the Premiership and it will be even more the case next season

Teams from Remain areas once again dominated the Premiership and it will be even more the case next season

Yet again sides from Leave areas get relegated The 2017/2018 English Premier League season came to an end yesterday and the above chart shows the final rankings linked to the Brexit referendum Remain shares. As can be seen the top half of the table is almost totally made up of sides from places where there was a high Remain vote while the bottom is dominated by team where Leave did best. With three Leave area sides being relegated to be…

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Betting on Labour’s vote share in the the Lewisham East by election

Betting on Labour’s vote share in the the Lewisham East by election

Backing Labour to get over 60% seems like value. Ladbrokes have a market up on Labour’s share of the vote in the Lewisham East by election where Heidi Alexander polled 67.9% last year. It is clear that the Lib Dems are going make the focus of the by election Labour’s position(s) on Brexit but I’m not sure that’ll have much of an impact. So far Corbyn has managed to appear all things to all people when it comes to the…

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Going nuclear

Going nuclear

ICYMI: Courtesy of the always resourceful @EIAgov, I got data back to 1949 of U.S. *net* petroleum imports (that's crude oil and refined products). The latest forecast is for 2019 net imports to drop to 1.5m b/d — lowest since 1958. #OOTT Full story here: https://t.co/itjliIuOzT pic.twitter.com/LXz1GvmULM — Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) May 9, 2018 When Peter the Great died in 1725, the Russian empire covered an extent unimagined when he came to power.  From his deathbed, he commanded his successors…

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Brexit exit date punters get nervous following the Electoral Commission ruling on Leave campaign funding

Brexit exit date punters get nervous following the Electoral Commission ruling on Leave campaign funding

Mar 29 ’19 still favourite but not as strong as it was Yesterday’s ruling about Vote EU’s referendum expenses has inevitably led to those betting that the March 29th date will be achieved reviewing their positions. In recent weeks the market had been moving strongly towards it happening on time and it is still odds on. But as the Betdata chart, based on actual Betfair trades shows there has been movement. It simply adds to the uncertainty and allows some…

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