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The LDs to outperform the Tories in Thursday’s by-election is the best bet out there at the moment

11/6/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 1 Comment

Ignore the GE2017 result & look at what’s happening on the ground Yesterday on Betfair someone wagered a few pounds on the Tories at 1000/1 to win Thursday’s Lewisham East by-election. This means that if he bet £10 he’ll lose £10 for all the signs are that the blue team is just running a token campaign in the seat where LAB got 67.9% of the vote in June last year. To make things harder the CON candidate is a leaver…

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The polling that should give great succour to Trump

11/6/2018 TSE Comments 293 Comments

Ahead of the G7 summit it is worth noting Donald Trump has the second highest 'own party' approval rating after 500 days of any US president in Gallup's archive. Only post 9/11 George W Bush is higher. pic.twitter.com/nZL9nBuUUT — Joe Twyman (@JoeTwyman) June 8, 2018 The above chart I found really interesting. Trump is retaining his support that is unmatched bar by George W Bush, by the hopefully unique set of circumstances that was 9/11. Despite the general hostility directed…

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The July plot to oust Mrs May

10/6/2018 TSE Comments 1 Comment

‘That was a dress rehearsal. Next time Theresa is toast’ After David Davis’s threat to quit last week the cabinet almost imploded. Now Brexiteers believe they have the numbers to force the PM out as soon as July. Top story by @ShippersUnbound . https://t.co/UnuVQxZrDM pic.twitter.com/36D6ekwOEd — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 10, 2018 It appears the patience of the Brexiteers with Mrs May has expired. Whilst the story involving the Russians is rightly dominating the front page of The Sunday Times, the…

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What would Labour really do about Brexit?

10/6/2018 TSE Comments 270 Comments

A few things are obvious to all but the most partisan: The Government is not conducting the negotiations well, because there is no clear majority within either Parliament or the country at large for any objectives. The EU might try to accommodate Britain if we did have clear objectives, but in their absence they default to something as close to fudge and little change as possible. The Opposition has no clear policy either. We don’t especially need to, though the…

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Theresa May has finally united the country on Brexit

9/6/2018 TSE Comments 393 Comments

What comes closest to your view on how well Brexit is going? All Brits: 10% well, 73% badly Remain: 5% well, 85% badlyLeave: 16% well, 70% badlyhttps://t.co/XV0uSCHH6y pic.twitter.com/0MM6LGCtxg — YouGov (@YouGov) June 7, 2018 An overwhelming majority think Brexit is going badly. Brexit has appeared to be the issue that tears the United Kingdom asunder yet the finding by YouGov shows there’s one aspect that is uniting the country. 73% of the country think Brexit is going badly with even…

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A handbag is needed to break Brexit’s dialogue of the deaf

9/6/2018 David Herdson Comments 308 Comments

Too many sides are frustrated by incomprehension “Brexit means Brexit”, Theresa May once said – and if only it did. Leaving the European Union was never meant to be an easy thing and Britain is making a fine show of just how difficult it can be. The structural and procedural problems are, however, not even half the problem; the greater part of it is an inability of the government to meaningfully talk to the EU, to parliament or even to…

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General Election 2017 : One year on

8/6/2018 Editor Comments 1 Comment

At 10.00pm this evening, a year ago, the Prime Minister’s gamble backfired. Whether this was due to the polls being misleading from the start (indicating a Con lead of 25% at the start of the campaign), the so called “youthquake” (identified by the Britsh Election Study) or reasons best summed up by Brenda from Bristol of “Oh, no, not another one!” we simply cannot tell, but we do know this. The Conservative overall majority was lost and if it had…

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Those who think the SNP are a busted flush might be surprised by the latest YouGov Scotland poll as Labour set to be reduced to just 1 Scottish MP, again

8/6/2018 TSE Comments 342 Comments

New @YouGov Scotland poll for @thetimesscot. https://t.co/P1mDnCQ5lQ pic.twitter.com/8K8yJFmC1u — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 7, 2018 By my reckoning this is a 2% increase for Yes and 2% decline for No when it comes to Scottish Independence since January. https://t.co/rpi9fvQLJ1 pic.twitter.com/TM1KYIMleZ — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 7, 2018 If you're wondering why Labour is doing badly in Scotland this is why. Corbyn's rating are sinking and so are Richard Leonard's ratings. pic.twitter.com/URakxDBzkh — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 7, 2018 But @RuthDavidsonMSP is still the…

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