Why betting on the Republicans in the House mid-terms may be the right strategy

Why betting on the Republicans in the House mid-terms may be the right strategy

Ian Whittaker on his betting plan The consensual view on the November mid-terms has been that the Democrats are favourites to win back the House in November.It is almost a given that a party that holds the White House loses seats – Clinton and Bush picked up a few seats in 1998 and 2002 but under unusual circumstances (pushback against Impeachment for Clinton, the aftermath of 9/11 for Bush). Trump disgust is seen as a powerful force for Democrats to…

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Local By-Election Review : May 24th / 25th 2018

Local By-Election Review : May 24th / 25th 2018

Aylsham on Broadland (Con defence) Result: Lib Dem 1,018 (46% +15% on last time), Con 865 (39% +7% on last time), Lab 328 (15% -7% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -15%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 153 (7%) on a swing of 4% from Con to Lib Dem) Cowfold, Shermanbury and West Grinstead on Horsham (Con defence) Result: Con 661 (68% -3% on last time), Lab 158 (16%, no candidate last time), Lib…

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On another planet

On another planet

Rebel Tory MPs have lost a sense of reality if they think an election will improve their position Politics is supposed to be the art of the possible. In one sense that’s just a truism: that which happens is, by definition, within the bounds of the possible. However, this week’s shown up again that Bismarck’s aphorism is only true to a degree. There are plenty of politicians who are not interested in the possible but only in their own priorities….

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Sajid Javid moves to second favourite to succeed Theresa May

Sajid Javid moves to second favourite to succeed Theresa May

From a 3.7% chance to 9%+ in just 25 days Following a glowing write-up by Fraser Nelson in The Telegraph this morning there’s been a lot of been a fair bit of betting interest in the Home Secretary for next Conservative leader. This is from the Nelson piece in which he looks at how Javid is handling his new job: “His first change – rhetorical style – is relatively easy. The bigger test will be if he can win the…

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Think of this weekend on PB as being like the Thameslink changes

Think of this weekend on PB as being like the Thameslink changes

Thanks to Liverpool getting through to the Champion’s league final and the ongoing series of strikes on SNCF – the French railway system we have a problem this weekend running PB. TSE is off to Kiev to support his beloved Liverpool while I am having to bring my holiday forward by two days so our train trip down to Andalusia won’t be disrupted by the strikes. The result is there is no one “on duty” over the weekend. So we…

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Unless LAB can win back Scotland then there’s little chance of Corbyn becoming PM

Unless LAB can win back Scotland then there’s little chance of Corbyn becoming PM

The latest Scotland only polls have LAB down in third place The biggest impact on the Labour-Conservative seat balance in the past decade was the virtual wipeout of LAB north of the border at GE2015. Five years earlier at GE2010 when Labour lost power there were, extraordinarily, no seat changes at all north of the border with what was then Gordon Brown’s party retaining all 41 seats that it held on an overall increased Scottish vote share. The SNP had…

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It is time we thought about another PB gathering

It is time we thought about another PB gathering

I have been reminded that it is now more than a year a year since we had a PB gathering. In recent years these have taken place in pubs in central London where Fat Steve has arranged for a specific area to be allocated to us. He has done a sterling job making the arrangements but alas he is now working overseas. Has anybody got any ideas for a future event and is there someone who is based in London…

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Pro-Brexit anti-Lords poll splashed by the Mail comes under fire for “loaded” questions

Pro-Brexit anti-Lords poll splashed by the Mail comes under fire for “loaded” questions

Leo Barasi of the PB/Polling Matters podcast sets out his reasons Leo Barasi, a regular with Keiran Pedley on the PB/Polling Matters Podcasts is no stranger to PBers and his is always worth listening to. He’s posted on his “Noise of the Crowd” blog observations about the ComRes poll that featured in yesterday’s Daily Mail. He writes: The fundamental problem is that the questions were nearly all one-sided agree/disagree questions, with each one loaded against the Lords and Remainers. A…

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