PB Video Analysis: Five Questions

PB Video Analysis: Five Questions

So, I started doing these videos a couple of months ago, and some of them have been very successful. And others are about the Italian economy. In doing so, I discovered something: if you put video content out onto the web, you will get deluged in comments. So, I’ve been accused of being a racist, and of being soft on illegal immigrants. I’ve also received a ton of emails asking me questions, some of which were not (metaphorically) written in…

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The morning must read

The morning must read

https://twitter.com/natemcdermott/status/1037428020401848320 This is probably the most astonishing article I’ve ever read. Two hours on and my jaw is still on the floor. The New York Times say The Times today is taking the rare step of publishing an anonymous Op-Ed essay. We have done so at the request of the author, a senior official in the Trump administration whose identity is known to us and whose job would be jeopardized by its disclosure. We believe publishing this essay anonymously is…

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No surrender to the IHRA

No surrender to the IHRA

Labour MP John Mann: "The eight should announce themselves."https://t.co/TLPEhQJJPw — Kevin Schofield (@KevinASchofield) September 5, 2018 When I look at the way Labour are handling the who anti-Semitism story I end up sounding like the late great Fred Trueman, ‘I don’t know what’s going off out there’. After the events yesterday I would have drawn the line under the whole affair and moved on to targeting the many areas the government are screwing up. But those eight MPs coupled with…

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Your regular reminder on why you should ignore self selecting polls (aka voodoo polls)

Your regular reminder on why you should ignore self selecting polls (aka voodoo polls)

The above is screen grab from a ‘poll’ that The Press and Journal are conducting online about Scottish Independence. Any poll that involves self selection, has no weightings, allows multiple voting, and doesn’t publish data tables can be safely ignored. Because as in the tweet below these polls can be ‘gamed’ to favour one side making the findings even more unreliable. Why you should ignore voodoo polls. https://t.co/hcC0fyyr7F. Picture Via @CarlosD22428844. pic.twitter.com/f5QGvRakBV — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 5, 2018 As an…

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The latest Ipsos MORI finding should worry all politicians

The latest Ipsos MORI finding should worry all politicians

Our #issuesindex has been running since 1974 – we rarely add new items unless there’s a clear change – this month in the top ten for the first time – lack of faith in government/politicians…(spontaneously mentioned by respondents). Data out tomorrow — Ben Page (@benatipsos) August 29, 2018 We also have a brand new entrant for the top ten – 12% say "lack of faith in govt/politics" is a big problem. This is our first new code since 2014 and…

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Chris Williamson’s odds to succeed Corbyn move from 100/1 to 33/1 in a week

Chris Williamson’s odds to succeed Corbyn move from 100/1 to 33/1 in a week

Ladbrokes: Chris Williamson is now 33/1 to become the next Labour leader, in from 100/1 last week pic.twitter.com/wp1El4c8vn — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) September 4, 2018 Why I’m not jumping aboard on this betting bandwagon The major betting news today is the odds of Derby North MP Chris Williamson tumbling from 100/1 last week to 33/1 today. My primary reason for not backing Williamson is that if someone from the Corbynite wing of the party succeeds they will need explicit public…

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May v Corbyn: Who’ll go first?

May v Corbyn: Who’ll go first?

Paddy Power’s market on who will cease to be leader first, Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn is an intriguing one. I can understand why Mrs May is the overwhelming favourite but I wonder if the value might be with Jeremy Corbyn for the following reasons. I maybe wrong on this but I feel we’ve reached a tipping point with Jeremy Corbyn these last few weeks following those comments about British Zionists, in the type of language the far right often…

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Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling

Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling

Please indulge me as I take a minute today to complain about poll questions that ask people whether they'd be more or less likely to vote for a candidate if the candidate did X thing. — Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) August 29, 2018 Things people are generally bad at:-explaining how they decide their votes-entertaining counterfactuals-understanding probability This asks them to do all three! — Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) August 29, 2018 But the even bigger problem is that people aren't going to…

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