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Why a united Ireland post Brexit is a real possibility

10/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Tory indifference towards the Union and opposition to Brexit in Northern Ireland makes a united Ireland a real possibility writes Keiran Pedley I cannot have been the only person that was astonished at Northern Ireland secretary Karen Bradley’s recent admission that she knew nothing of the place before taking office. I am probably being naïve, but you would have thought that someone appointed to such an important role would at least possess a passing knowledge of its history and the…

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The power and politics of pardon

9/9/2018 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Under the US constitution, an American president has a virtually untrammelled power to pardon, or commute the sentence of, anyone convicted of a Federal offence (but not offences under State law). It is a power completely personal to the president, who can exercise it for any reason, or for no good reason, and it has been used surprisingly often: 1,927 times by Barack Obama, for example. Although there is a government department, the Office of the Pardon Attorney, through which…

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Sweden sours? Will the far right make further inroads in Scandinavian social democracy?

9/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

For the last 100 years, the Social Democrats have dominated Swedish politics. They have been in government for all bar 22 of those years. It used its hegemonic status to establish a social democratic culture that worked with the country’s Lutheran ethos and with business, and for a long time managed to preside over a successful and distinctive blend of high taxation supporting a strong social safety net and a dynamic economy. Their grip has been loosening for a generation. …

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Further thoughts on Chris Williamson succeeding Jeremy Corbyn

8/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Earlier on this week I wrote a piece on Chris Williamson’s odds to succeed Jeremy Corbyn tumbling from 100/1 to 33/1 in a week, I also explained the reasons why I wouldn’t be jumping aboard that betting bandwagon. The tweets below from Theo Bertram are a response to my initial tweets on the subject. Theo is someone who knows the Labour party very well, he has been an adviser to both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, so I really do…

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Trump’s tantrums won’t cost him the presidency – yet

8/9/2018 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

But the NYT article will drive him deeper into the bunker Dysfunctional doesn’t begin to describe the White House. The high level of turnover among staff, the erratic decision-making, the presidential public streams-of-consciousness made with zero empathy for their subjects, the failure to actually deliver on key policies like The Wall: we knew all this and have done pretty much since Day 1, if not before. What we didn’t know before the sensational New York Times article[1] was the extent…

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If you’re betting on the next Lib Dem leader the field could be about to get rather large

7/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Sir Vince Cable: "I'm not putting a timeline [on it]" Lib Dem leader says he will lead party through #Brexit and local elections before standing down https://t.co/YHjGU6K2SA pic.twitter.com/gQEfSUYFYE — BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) September 7, 2018 Lib Dems plan to let supporters choose leader without joining fee https://t.co/abmfNNFn6a — The Guardian (@guardian) September 6, 2018 This is a very good question. The Lib Dems' rule changes could enable a current Lab MP to very easily become the next leader of…

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Surely Labour MPs won’t go quietly with deselections set to become a reality

7/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Joan Ryan is chair of Labour Friends of Israel. Tonight local party radicals passed a vote of no confidence in her, 1st stage of deselection. Tough to think of a worse look for a political party that aspires to govern. https://t.co/7Pqyg6TPvL — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) September 6, 2018 Another moderate and Corbyn critic @gavinshuker has also just lost a confidence vote tonight. That’s 4 Labour MPs in total now, after Hoey and Field. The purge has begun. — Tom…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Would Remain win a second referendum and could Brexit lead to a united Ireland?

6/9/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at a new report by NatCen suggesting that attitudes to Brexit are shifting and that Brits would vote Remain next time. Meanwhile, Keiran takes us through some recent polling in Northern Ireland from Deltapoll on the question of a united Ireland following Brexit and asks whether unionism is too complacent about Northern Ireland’s future in the UK. Follow this week’s guests Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet