Earlier on this week I wrote a piece on Chris Williamson’s odds to succeed Jeremy Corbyn tumbling from 100/1 to 33/1 in a week, I also explained the reasons why I wouldn’t be jumping aboard that betting bandwagon.

The tweets below from Theo Bertram are a response to my initial tweets on the subject. Theo is someone who knows the Labour party very well, he has been an adviser to both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, so I really do pay attention to him as he understands the Labour party better than I do.

I disagree. Williamson is a frontrunner for 3 reasons: 1. He has started his campaign already (under the guise of his 'democracy tour'). Local campaigning wins. Like Corbyn, Harriet was written off as a candidate when she went for Deputy but turning up locally *wins votes*.

— Theo Bertram (@theobertram) September 6, 2018

2. When Corbyn goes, his support will splinter. There is no guarantee those votes will flow to his anointed. Likely two Corbynistas will run, without fear from moderate candidate. Williamson has built a loyal radical following, distinct from Corbyn, that gives him a shot.

— Theo Bertram (@theobertram) September 6, 2018

3. He'll be the next Deputy leader when they depose Watson.

— Theo Bertram (@theobertram) September 6, 2018

Whilst I do still think it is unlikely Williamson succeeds Corbyn because of the size of his majority but if Corbyn lowers the threshold to stand in Labour leadership contests it could happen, especially in light of Theo’s comments.

So going forward, I won’t be laying Chris Williamson in this market, currently his best price is 25/1 with Bet365.

TSE