After the likely failure of today’s confidence vote then what?

After the likely failure of today’s confidence vote then what?

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The winning margin will set the baseline for future challenges The outcome of this afternoon’s confidence vote in HMG is not really in doubt following the assurances made last night by Moggsy and representatives of the DUP that they would be backing the government. The real interest will be the size of the winning margin because it will almost certainly represent the maximum for both those for and against and looks like being the baseline for future such votes in…

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Punters now think it is even less likely that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th

Punters now think it is even less likely that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th

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To my mind the most significant thing to come out of the catastrophic defeat for the government on its Brexit deal was the statement by Theresa May that she’ll look to consulting with other parties. I just wonder if that is paving the way for a second referendum. Clearly the other main parties, LAB after its likely confidence vote failure tomorrow, the SNP, the LDS, PC and the Green are all committed to a second vote. It would be politically…

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On the spread betting markets the number of Brexit deal “ayes” for TMay’s deal slips five during the afternoon

On the spread betting markets the number of Brexit deal “ayes” for TMay’s deal slips five during the afternoon

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For me the most satisfying, if risky, form of political gambling is on the spread betting markets where the more you are right with your prediction the more you win – with, alas, of the converse being the case. So on SportingIndex this afternoon there has been a lively market on who many MPs are going to vote “Aye” in the voting that starts in less than an hour. At 3pm you could have “sold” the number at 222 MPs…

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On this day lets not forget the 1998 Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to the troubled province

On this day lets not forget the 1998 Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to the troubled province

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Wikipedia Let’s not forget either the DUP’s popularity within the province One of the issues with the politics Northern Ireland is that the Republican party, Sinn Fein, refuses to take up its seven seats at Westminster. This means that of the 18 constituencies in the Province seven do not have active MPs. It also means that the only Westminster representation comes from a party that got just 36% of the vote there in June 2017. This makes the parliamentary representation…

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Whatever you think of Bercow it is right that the executive has less control over proceedings of the elected House

Whatever you think of Bercow it is right that the executive has less control over proceedings of the elected House

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Like many I’ve often been irritated by John Bercow particularly at the lengthy interjections he likes to make at PMQs which can appear like grandstanding. It is said that his approach to the role is anti-Tory, a view I don’t hold. If he appears that way it is down to the fact that for the vast majority of his time in the job the Tories have been in power and inevitably the executive hates anything that impedes their actions. Basically…

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On the eve of the big vote political punters now make it 79% that the UK won’t leave the EU by March 29th

On the eve of the big vote political punters now make it 79% that the UK won’t leave the EU by March 29th

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Chart from Betdata.io showing trend on what is currently the busiest political market on the Betfair Exchange. The general view is that TMay is heading for a defeat tomorrow night when MPs are at last given a chance to vote on the deal. Assuming that happens she then has three days to come back to the house with another proposal. Quite how that shapes up is hard to read but punters are gambling that the UK won’t be leaving on…

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Rebels without a get-out clause. Why you shouldn’t expect many declared Leave opponents of the deal to back down

Rebels without a get-out clause. Why you shouldn’t expect many declared Leave opponents of the deal to back down

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(Constituencies coded A had a Leave vote of over 60%, those coded B had a Leave vote of over 50%, those coded C had a Leave vote over 40% and those coded D had a Leave vote of less than 40%. ) Everyone loves talking about the rebel MPs who have put Theresa May in double trouble.  There are numerous lists floating around.  Some list all the MPs who have expressed reservations about Chequers or the deal.  Some seek to look…

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The weekend polling suggests that Trump is losing voter support in the battle of “The Wall”

The weekend polling suggests that Trump is losing voter support in the battle of “The Wall”

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Now he’s in negative territory amongst non-college whites With the US government shutdown continuing and 800k federal workers not getting their salary cheques on Friday there’s no sign of an end to what is totally dominating US politics. Basically Trump has shut down large parts of the federal government to put pressure on the Democrats to provide funding for a wall along the whole of the Mexican-US border. This was a key Trump WH2016 campaign pledge when he said the…

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