For me the most satisfying, if risky, form of political gambling is on the spread betting markets where the more you are right with your prediction the more you win – with, alas, of the converse being the case.
So on SportingIndex this afternoon there has been a lively market on who many MPs are going to vote “Aye” in the voting that starts in less than an hour.
At 3pm you could have “sold” the number at 222 MPs – that’s now slipped to 217.
If you bet at that level and the outcome was, say, 210 MPs then you would win the difference between the actual outcome and your bet – in this case SEVEN, times your stake level. The worse it is for Mrs May the more money you would make.
If you think that it is not going to be as bad for the PM then you “buy”.
Because of the open-ended nature of the outcome spread betting is only for those comfortable with taking big risks.