On the eve of the big vote political punters now make it 79% that the UK won’t leave the EU by March 29th
Chart from Betdata.io showing trend on what is currently the busiest political market on the Betfair Exchange.
The general view is that TMay is heading for a defeat tomorrow night when MPs are at last given a chance to vote on the deal. Assuming that happens she then has three days to come back to the house with another proposal.
Quite how that shapes up is hard to read but punters are gambling that the UK won’t be leaving on the due date.
This could be significant if true:
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"A public vote is *one* of the options, it doesn't say it's the preferred option or the default option. Obviously we will judge how to deal with the options."
— Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) January 14, 2019