politicalbetting.com – Page 738 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

More Democrats put their hats into the ring in the fight for the nomination to take on Trump

18/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

While all in the UK have been focused on Brexit and it’s aftermath things are starting to hot up in the race to be elected president of the United States in November 2020. This will be the 5th White House campaign that will be covered by Politicalbetting since the site’s foundation in 2004. These are massive betting events and throughout the next 22 months there’ll be a wide range of markets to bet on. There’s a lot of early activity…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Deal or no deal. Plus are the Tories really ahead in the polls?

17/1/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s podcast Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss the fallout from a hectic week in Westminster. They ask whether a General Election, 2nd referendum or ‘no deal Brexit’ have become more or less likely and explain why politicians claiming that the Tories are ahead in the polls are not telling the full story. Listen to this week’s episode below: Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet

As the Tory Brexit crisis continues Corbyn’s “Best PM” ratings drop to post GE2017 low

17/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Chart @Statto And Cable puts the pressure on Corbyn over 2nd referendum https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1085897750384906242 By 76% to 15% current LAB supporters tell YouGov that in hindsight the referendum vote to leave the EU was wrong.https://t.co/rGi3BWzYWo — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 17, 2019 A fast moving day following the Tory victory in last night’s Commons confidence vote has seen the focus on Mr, Corbyn who has refused to meet the PM. In another move the LD leader, Vince Cable, has told Corbyn…

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If there’s a second referendum then LEAVE’s “Tell them Again” message would likely win the day

17/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

With increasing regularity at the moment the national Westminster polls are asking how respondents would vote if there was a new referendum on Brexit. In the main the responses a fairly similar with those wanting to stay in the EU having a lead between 7 and 10%. I am not convinced there has been that much switching. Being a Leaver or remainer is almost akin to supporting City or United in Manchester. You are one side or the other but…

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Now what?

16/1/2019 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

There are no good options from now on, no cost-free ones, anyway. There never were. If this point had been made 2½ years ago – and indeed at any point thereafter – we might not be where we are now. So now what? Well, for those who want a No Deal Brexit doing nothing is the best option. Just wait. Tick. Tock. …… Until 11 pm on Friday 29th March 2019. Exciting, isn’t it? Like small children waiting for Father…

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On Betfair a March 29th UK EU exit now just a 15% chance whilst the 2nd referendum betting moves more to NO

16/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Live Betfair exchange odds monitoring from Betdata.io On Betfair punters rate it a 61% chance that 310-319 MPs will vote FOR tonight's confidence motion. It's a 97% chance that the government will survive — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 16, 2019 Tweet

After the likely failure of today’s confidence vote then what?

16/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The winning margin will set the baseline for future challenges The outcome of this afternoon’s confidence vote in HMG is not really in doubt following the assurances made last night by Moggsy and representatives of the DUP that they would be backing the government. The real interest will be the size of the winning margin because it will almost certainly represent the maximum for both those for and against and looks like being the baseline for future such votes in…

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Punters now think it is even less likely that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th

15/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

To my mind the most significant thing to come out of the catastrophic defeat for the government on its Brexit deal was the statement by Theresa May that she’ll look to consulting with other parties. I just wonder if that is paving the way for a second referendum. Clearly the other main parties, LAB after its likely confidence vote failure tomorrow, the SNP, the LDS, PC and the Green are all committed to a second vote. It would be politically…

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