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The Italian Job – Part Two: Nessun Dorma – sleepless nights in Brussels

13/1/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

For most of the modern era Italy has been treated as something of a lightweight in world affairs despite being one of the world’s largest economies. This has often been on the back of weak and unpredictable government which has stopped Italy taking a wider role. Within the European Union itself Italy has been treated as something inconsequential despite being a founder member. Northern Europeans and especially German politicians have been openly scathing about the country. More recently Emmanuel Macron…

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The Italian Job – Part One: 5 Star and the Lega blow the bloody doors off

13/1/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

This is an article about Italian politics. I have had to stop typing just to double check what I’ve written. Since when has Italian politics been interesting? Italian politicians of course – Berlusconi, bunga bunga, strange men from the Mezzogiorno who sleep with horses heads, big backhanders, ladies with big backsides, Parliamentary punch ups – Italian politicians have fascinated us. But that was entertainment not real politics. For most of us modern Italian politics has been a distant background noise of…

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Why the Brexit divisions are here to stay

12/1/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

When you stop and think about it, voting is a very low information form of communication. We get nothing about the certainty of the voter’s view, nothing about the enthusiasm of the voter, nothing about the considerations that led the voter to that view. All we get is a single recorded choice. As a result, every so often a political truth is so stark staring obvious, so central to British politics, that it is almost entirely missed. We are at…

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It’s time for the Tories to pick a candidate for Buckingham

12/1/2019 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Bercow needs to be eased out, one way or another Goodwill is the oil which lubricates the British constitution. The rules of parliament have been inherited from a time when governing was a gentlemen’s business and was expected to be carried out by gentlemen acting as gentlemen. Self-restraint and the awareness of when it becomes inappropriate to keep pushing a case are an essential aspect to enabling the system to work. Parliament is frequently criticised for being overly adversarial –…

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If the Article 50 exit date gets deferred it could raise doubts about whether the UK ever leaves

11/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A deferral on March 29th could lead to similar calls once the extension ends Lots of talk today about the possibility of the March 29th Brexit deadline being deferred because the UK Parliament does not have the time left to enact the required legislation. Apparently six bills would have to complete the parliamentary process before the article 50 deadline of March 29 when the country is due automatically under the legislation that allowed the Article 50 notice to be given….

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Corbyn would be taking a huge gamble going into an election so out of step with LAB voters on Brexit

11/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Yesterday in what was billed as his “big Brexit speech” LAB leader Corbyn called for a general election should TMay lose fail to win backing for her Brexit deal in the vote next week. But he’s been far more reluctant to allow Labour to give any backing to the increasing clamours for a specific referendum on the deal. As is widely known Corbyn has been anti the EU just about all his political career and he’s not going to change…

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On the Betfair exchange its now a 69% chance the the UK WON’T exit the EU at the end of March

10/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

And a 35% chance that 2019 will see a Brexit referendum Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Kamala Harris – my WH2020 66/1 pick from two years ago – set to enter the race a week on Monday

10/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Now joint favourite for the Democratic nomination This is from my post under the heading “My 66/1 long-shot bet for the 2020 White House race: Democratic Senator Kamala Harris from California” from January 18th 2017 – two days before Donald Trump was inaugurated as President. “..With Trump’s inauguration taking place on Friday there’s been a flurry of betting activity on the newly elected Senator from California, Kamala Harris, for the next White House Race in 2020. This followed a lot…

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