politicalbetting.com

Today represents 100 days since Kemi Badenoch was elected Tory leader, and this polling contains a lot of grief for her, such as losing to Sir Keir Starmer, Nigel Farage, and even Sir Ed Davey on the best PM polling, the latter must sting given how dismissive a lot of Tories are towards the Lib Dems, which is odd given the substantial chance the Lib Dems eclipse the Tories on seat numbers at the next election. The really grim findings…

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One of the recent innovations in UK politics is party members getting to choose the new Prime Minister, a move that I have decried as it leads to things like Liz Truss being elected by 81,326 Tory members who drank the kool-aid and ignored economic reality. Truss and they thought those 81,326 votes gave Truss a mandate to change the country. If Starmer goes before the next election then it will be down to Labour MPs to first back the…

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Well that’s one little mystery solved, I wonder if Boris Johnson attempts a political comeback then Mr Cummings will try and kibosh that as well. TSE

Despite being potentially four and a half years away from the next election some people, particularly on social media, are calling the next election for Reform which seem a courageous call and may turn out to be as ridiculous as those who in early September 2022 thought Liz Truss would make for an excellent Prime Minister. This is not intended to be a discussion about Brexit but about Trump, for good or ill Nigel Farage is seen as very close…

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TSE

As the grandson of humble immigrants to the United Kingdom, like my grandmother, I have never quite got my head around the British class system. I’ve always thought the best way is to judge people by their actions not where they came from and I suspect that’s the thinking of most of the country. My view is that if Starmer’s advisers try and emphasise Starmer’s working class roots as a way to win votes then they are as deluded at…

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Yesterday’s news about a potential pact between the Tories and Reform helped crystalise a thought I’ve had about why backing Reform to win the most seats at the next general election might not be profitable even if you are confident that Nigel Farage is going to be the Prime Minister after the next election. I’ll explain the reasons why this is plausible I) A pact between Reform and the Tories. This might allow Labour to win the most seats but…

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Like John Rentoul I think there will be no pact simply because of the logistics of organising the pact. It would a very messy process deciding which seats/candidates you agree to stand/withdraw in, there’s also the issue of ego. I cannot see Badenoch or Farage being able to manage the pact process or a general election campaign where one of them would have to play second fiddle to the other. For those reasons alone I cannot see a pact happening…

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