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UK finances are in a mess. Traditionally, the debate has been between the right, which favours a small-state but low-tax model like the US, and the left, which favours a Scandi-style high-tax but high level of services model. It feels like we are falling between 2 stools with high taxes and poor public services. Some numbers from the ONS (September 2025): All chancellors have their own special rules to pretend they have the finances under control. Reeves has clearly lost…

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America had some important elections earlier on this month and people have looked at the underlying numbers and one thing stands out, Hispanics swinging against the Republican party, given how Trump’s ICE have been behaving this is no surprise. When looking at next year’s mid-terms it will be worth looking at the demographics and where there’s a lot of Hispanics then Republican party will do worse. TSE

After the last general election I awarded Sir Keir Starmer the title ‘Malleus ScotNatorum’ but the way things are headed I will be taking that title away next May. I find the first question fascinating as it shows just fewer than a quarter of Scots would consider voting Labour. Previously I have talked about about the potential for the Liberal Democrats to overtake Labour, perhaps Scotland might be the first place it happens. I am not sure there’s not any…

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Where Scotland leads, the English government follows. Really? Well, how else to explain the government’s recent actions following the Supreme Court’s judgment in For Women Scotland (2) (“FWS”)? It seems to be hanging onto their manly kilts by following precisely the Scottish government’s behaviour – not just following this judgment but an earlier one (FWS (1) – see here). What is the UK government doing? A question in three parts. 1. Acceptance On the first, the government has certainly said…

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PBers know how much Mike Smithson and myself regard the satisfaction ratings from Ipsos and they are utterly grim for the First and Second Lords of the Treasury. Whilst Liz Truss ratings were much lower with other pollsters these are still ultimately grim for Starmer & Reeves. Political authority is a lot like virginity, once it has gone it is close to impossible to regain, I thought Starmer would be difficult to oust as Labour leader given Labour’s past history…

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The politician with the least self awareness is Liz Truss who after her disastrous 49 day tenure as Prime Minister thought she might still have a major role in the Tory party but she now has a rival in Angela Rayner. My view is that you cannot go from having to resign in disgrace over your tax affairs to running for Prime Minister particularly if I expect Labour will focus on Nigel Farage’s probity and financial affairs at the next…

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I suspect we will have to wait until next year’s primaries and November elections to see who has won this particular battle. I suspect Trump will become rather more volatile if the Epstein files are realised, I am not sure why the self confessed pussy grabber is worried. This might be good news for my 140/1 tip on MTG winning the presidency in 2028. TSE

Sir Keir Starmer is a man so passionless that he could send a glass eye to sleep (that isn’t a criticism, sometimes we need boring in our lives. I wonder if Wes Streeting passion/anger here might appeal to Labour MPs and the country. TSE