politicalbetting.com

Not much movement, and yet lots of movement (for some).The national polling gap continues to narrow slightly, fairly uniformly (we’ll get to Princeton). And yet… Harris’s vote share is actually increasing, just slightly slower than Trump’s. It would seem that both sides’ voters are firming up their views. Harris may be happy to have a lead, Trump may be happy the lead might not be enough for Harris to overcome the disadvantage the Dems have in the Electoral College. Princeton…

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The Times are reporting Up to a dozen Conservative MPs are considering standing down before the next election because of Labour’s ­imminent clampdown on second jobs. Senior party sources told The Times that they expected “a drip of resignations” to begin after the Tory leadership contest, starting in the new year. Those who served in Rishi Sunak’s government and who were passed over for senior shadow cabinet roles are said to be most likely to quit. One former cabinet minister…

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TSE

I read a truly awful book the other day. JJ Bola’s (apologies if you’re a reader of PB) Mask Off: Masculinity Redefined can be perfectly summed up by a translation of its German title: Don’t be a man: Why masculinity is a nightmare for boys. The idea that the solution to toxic masculinity is to implore boys not to be men is, to put it mildly, self-defeating. I’m not trying to deny that we have a problem with masculinity. Feminists…

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I would place Alex Salmond in the top five consequential politicians of my lifetime, he transformed Scottish Nationalism from a minor past time to a near majority in Scotland. It is often forgotten that Scottish devolution was set up to kill Scottish nationalism stone dead and also to ensure no party won a majority at Holyrood, both allusions he smashed in 2007 and 2011 respectively. Alex Salmond was a regular reader of PB and once quoted Mike Smithson and PB…

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The Independent reports this utterly magnificent operation from Robert Jenrick and his team James Cleverly was eliminated from the Tory leadership race because Robert Jenrick’s team ruthlessly targeted his supporters “who hated Kemi Badenoch”, The Independent can reveal. The former home secretary looked to have been a certainty for the final two of the contest to go to Conservative members when the penultimate set of results were announced on Tuesday, putting him eight ahead of the previous frontrunner Mr Jenrick. With Mr Jenrick just one vote…

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I suspect the budget at the end of the month will change the narrative one way or the other for the Starmer government, Rachel Reeves will need to deliver. TSE

Sporting Index have opened their spreads on the White House race. I am a huge fan of spread betting but I realise this isn’t for everybody as you can lose substantially more than your stake but spread betting is political betting loins are girded. I’ve said for a while is that if Trump wins it will be a narrow win in the electoral college but if Harris wins it will be big victory in the electoral college so I would…

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