politicalbetting.com

If a Prime Minister and his party is a long way behind in the polls they will try and give themselves enough time to turn it around. I have repeatedly stated that any PM that held a general election campaign that straddled the Christmas and new year period would get gubbed in the polls however I am now leaning towards to a January election. Sunak thinks he needs time to turn things around before he is indelibly regarded as worse…

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As we can see from the chart above showing the Betfair overall majority market over the last ten days last week’s elections have reinforced the expectation abour Starmer winning a majority. Natalie Elphicke’s defection has left the market unmoved. TSE

About four hours ago if you had asked me about the chances of Natalie Elphicke defecting to Labour I would have replied with ‘There’s more chance of Suella Braverman defecting to Labour’ but here we are and David Gauke sums it up perfectly. In the short term I suspect the damage will be greater for the Tories as the defection gives off an air of decay, a bit like the last day of Rome with less fornication and even less…

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If there were a market on Brighton Pavillion at the next election then the money would have piled on to Labour yesterday. This would have based on yesterday’s cynical and gobsmacking decision by the Siân Berry, Green Party’s candidate for Brighton Pavillion, to quit as a member of the London Assembly three days after being re-elected. Her rationale was to focus on her general election campaign something that was known about before she stood for re-election in London. Labour I…

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The locals didn’t offer much comfort for the Tories. The high point was Ben Houchen surviving a 17% swing against him. The Lib Dems won more councillors than them for the first time since 1996. But there was one glimmer of hope: Reform UK fell a fair bit short of what their national polling would suggest. The Right Benchmarks They say history never repeats, but the rise of Reform is as close as we’ll get. Farage’s new party (with someone…

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One of the reasons I am expecting Joe Biden to win this November is that he will get Dem voters out whilst the Insurrectionist-in-Chief and his party of democracy deniers will struggle to do so. These two polls back this up and why the initial headline figures can be actively misleading and why likely voters might be the ones to focus on. I suspect during the campaign with more focus on the GOP, Trump, and abortion then Biden’s lead might…

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Today John Swinney became leader of the SNP following the withdrawal of Graeme McCormick and Mr Swinney must be hoping for a better time as leader than this first stint. The first poll conducted entirely since Humza Yousaf announced his resignation shows how grim things are for the SNP because their fall in the polls is potentially going to allow the Tories to increase their number of Scottish MPs even if they are going to be pummelled UK wide. At…

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9 September 2013: there is a meeting between Brian Altman KC and the Post Office’s in-house and external lawyers. A key witness, Gareth Jenkins of Fujitsu, who gave oral evidence at Seema Misra’s 2010 trial, was tainted. Following advice from Simon Clarke, a barrister with Cartwright King, the Post Office had asked them to review its prosecutions since 2010. Its GC had agreed to this as the cut off date even though it excluded the Misra case. What should the…

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