Sunak is just like the Grand Old Duke of York?
I tipped July 2024 as the month of the election at 20s a few weeks ago is now down to 2.04. I feel content. TSE
Who shall win the first debate?
Ladbrokes have a market on who wil the CNN debate scheduled for the end of June and I can see no value in this market. I suspect the response will be a plague on both your houses as the debate will be a bit of a disorganised poo-show and that could lead to either side winning. TSE
Does this explain why there’s been no swingback this year?
I know I was not alone in thinking that the polls would tighten somewhat this year but Labour’s lead has widened so far this year and this finding from Opinium might explain why Labour’s lead hasn’t shrunk and the Tories are facing an extinction level event election result. I am not sure the Tories have time to turn this around. TSE
The Swinney slump continues
The end of the SNP hegemony seems to be accelerating under John Swinney’s leadership which seems natural for a party in government for over seventeen years. The only sliver of comfort is that John Swinney is the most favourable politician in Scotland although that could be down to a honeymoon bounce, if that evaporates by the time of the UK wide general election then headline voting figures are likely to prove accurate. What should really worry the SNP are the…
Justice Delayed ….
This week the government will – after the usual pro forma apology – finally announce payment of compensation to the victims and their families of the blood contamination scandal. The scandal started in the 1970’s. Three-quarters of the victims are dead. No-one has been held accountable. Other countries facing the same issue have managed to pay compensation and hold some of those responsible accountable. Inordinate delays after scandals seem to be an example of British exceptionalism at its worst. Given…
What’s this going to do to Middle Eastern and domestic affairs?
I am not a foreign policy expert but this potentially could be a black swan event in an election year on both sides of the Atlantic, particularly if things get interesting in the Strait of Hormuz which could have an impact for both Joe Biden and Rishi Sunak. Like Benjamin Netanyahu the Iranian President has a long history of supporting Hamas and I wonder if that will change with a new President, I suspect not as the Supreme Leader is…
An ill fitting union
The defection of Natalie Elphicke looks like a short term mistake by Starmer. I don’t think this is because voters dislike defectors as Opinium note ‘The public lean towards believing that letting in Dan Poulter was the right decision (28% right vs 21% wrong), but tend to think it was the wrong decision to let in Natalie Elphicke (16% right vs 33% wrong)’ although that might be down to the fact Dan Poulter is a doctor and everybody loves a…
RFK Jr’s ratings
One of the things I thought that might cause problems for Joe Biden was anti-vaccine grifter RFK Jr using his family’s name to siphon off votes from Joe Biden’s supporters so those poll findings from YouGov should be reassuring for Team Biden. I suspect those positive ratings with Republicans will not translate into votes for RFK Jr from the GOP voters. His popularity is likely be down to the potential damage he could do to Biden and his anti-vaccine beliefs…