The Conservatives’ election chances. Ten Seats To Watch

The Conservatives’ election chances. Ten Seats To Watch

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And they’re off.  The Conservatives have raced into an early lead in the polls and will be looking to secure an overall majority. Will they do it? Here are ten seats that will be illustrative of how they will do.   Cheltenham Long-held by the Lib Dems, the Conservatives took Cheltenham in 2015. This constituency was “won” by Remain something like 57:43. It’s a very clear Lib Dem target, though its current MP Alex Chalk himself supported Remain and has opposed…

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So, how will the LibDems do?

So, how will the LibDems do?

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A forecast from Robert Let me start by saying this is not an election I have much confidence in predicting. But because that makes for an uninteresting article, I will make some forecasts. Currently the LDs are polling about 16-17%, which is about five points down on the peak they achieved after the European elections earlier this year. I think there’s around a 40% chance that they end up in the 14-19% range at the coming elections. I reckon there’s…

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YouGov boost for Swinson in the TV debates row

YouGov boost for Swinson in the TV debates row

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By two to one those polled think she should attend Further to this morning’s thread on the exclusion of LD leader Jo Swinson from the ITV General Election debate there’s now a YouGov poll carried out today that points to her desire to be there getting support from the public. Clearly LD voters are most supportive of her presence as the chart shows but there’s strong backing from LAB voters as well and CON ones back her by a small…

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If the Tory MPs are really focussed on gaining northern LAB seats they won’t choose Lindsay Hoyle as Speaker

If the Tory MPs are really focussed on gaining northern LAB seats they won’t choose Lindsay Hoyle as Speaker

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Today’s big election is the voting by MPs on which of them should be the next Speaker to succeed John Bercow. The strong odds-on betting favourite is the current deputy, Lindsay Hoyle MP for the Lancashire seat of Chorley. One factor that might work against Hoyle is that his seat could be regarded as a target for the Tories. Back in 2010 LAB held it with a margin of just 5.2% which means it would have gone on a 2.6%…

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GE19’s first big TV event: A debate between 2 men whose parties between them got just 23.2% in the last UK elections

GE19’s first big TV event: A debate between 2 men whose parties between them got just 23.2% in the last UK elections

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So the argument would be between two leavers I alway felt a bit sorry for ITV at GE2017 when the leaders’ debate it got was the one without TMay or Corbyn. Maybe because of that it has sought to push forward with its Johnson-Corbyn clash without anybody else. This means excluding Jo Swinson and Nigel Farage of the two most electorally successful parties currently in the UK. In the May 23rd elections the Brexit Party and the LDs came away…

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The Scottish play. Will Wales follow Scotland and abandon Labour at a general election?

The Scottish play. Will Wales follow Scotland and abandon Labour at a general election?

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We saw in Scotland tribal loyalty to Labour can be upturned by a nation changing referendum, will Wales be next? The latest polling in Wales shows the Conservatives leading Labour 29% to 25% yet that 4% lead for the Conservatives still sees Labour win more seats than the Conservatives so it is understandable why Labour are the favourites in this market because first past the post and old constituency boundaries are working against the Conservatives in Wales. I think there’s…

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How sensitive are the poll figures?

How sensitive are the poll figures?

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Let’s take a step back from the day-to-day swings and look at the overall picture, focused on the likelihood of a Conservative overall majority (I’m not going to look here at changes between the opposition parties). The result at the last election was  Con 42 Lab 40 LD 7 UKIP 2 Green 2 others 7 The current polling average is  Con 37 (-5) Lab 25 (-15) LD 17 (+10) BXP 11 (+9 over UKIP) Green 4 (+2) I’m taking here…

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Warren on the slide in WH2020 nomination betting after negative response to her healthcare funding plan

Warren on the slide in WH2020 nomination betting after negative response to her healthcare funding plan

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There’ve been big movements in the betting in the fight for the Democratic nomination with one-time favourite, Beto O’Rourke, now pulling himself out of the race and the current favourite Elizabeth Warren seeing a dramatic slide in her betting position. At the last TV debate she had been challenged forcefully by Mayor Pete to explain how she would fund her ambitious healthcare plan without putting up taxes for the middle classes. That led to her this week giving details which…

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