Local By-Election Review : The 2017 – 2019 Parliament

Local By-Election Review : The 2017 – 2019 Parliament

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When I started this, I, like most people, believed I would be tallying the local by-elections for October 2019. Now, I find myself publishing the data for every by-election in the 2017 – 2019 Parliament! And, aside from everything happening inside Westminster, what an eventful few years it has been in local by-elections. We’ve had Labour gaining seats from the United Kingdom Independence Party, Local Independents gaining seats from Labour and Conservatives, Greens gaining seats from the Conservatives, Liberal Democrat…

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Labour’s fan club is far too confident: 10 reasons why 2019 may not be 2017-part-2

Labour’s fan club is far too confident: 10 reasons why 2019 may not be 2017-part-2

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A recovery for Corbyn is no foregone conclusion; it may get worse for Labour This is not a prediction as such. There are plenty of counter-arguments to the points I’m about to make, some of which will almost certainly turn out to be true. It would be equally possible to write an article with 10 reasons why the Tory lead may well slide again. All the same, to keep things simple, let’s keep the focus on this side of the…

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A CON majority drops out of the GE2019 betting favourite slot following Farage’s campaign threat

A CON majority drops out of the GE2019 betting favourite slot following Farage’s campaign threat

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Ever since a 2019 general election became a certainty punters made a CON majority the favourite outcome touching nearly a 60% chance on the Betfair according to the betdata.io chart. That’s all changed following Farage announcement that his Brexit Party will fight a full range of seats thus possibly splitting the leave vote unless Johnson is ready to form a leave alliance. Looking at the official election timetable the last point at which Farage has got to decide is 4pm…

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How each Westminster seat voted at the May 2019 Euros

How each Westminster seat voted at the May 2019 Euros

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A much better way of looking at each constituency The chart above is based on projections from Prof Chris Hanretty of Royal Holloway on how each Westminster constituency in the Euro elections on May23rd – the most recent election when the whole nation voted. I like to take the aggregate of LD/GRN/CHUK/PC to get a sense of the remain vote in a seat. Likewise taking CON+BREX gives you a sense of the leave side of the equation. The LAB vote…

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Farage plays his Trump card but Johnson surely shouldn’t be tempted

Farage plays his Trump card but Johnson surely shouldn’t be tempted

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Perhaps the most bizarre event so far in this election campaign was Nigel Farage talking to Donald Trump on his LBC radio programme yesterday. Clearly Farage has been the big loser from the emergence of Johnson as the Conservative leader and Prime Minister and we have heard very little from the the Brexit party leader over the last month or so. How was Farage going to get back into the game and start commanding media attention again? Well we have…

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With the former Brexit deadline ending at 11pm how the betting’s moved since Johnson came

With the former Brexit deadline ending at 11pm how the betting’s moved since Johnson came

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So here we are and a third Brexit deadline is about to be missed in spite of Johnson firm assertions that we would be leaving tonight when he first became PM. This has been a very active betting market with on Betfair alone £7.2m of bets being matched. The Betdata.io chart of Betfair prices really follows what has been happening. My own view is that Johnson won’t suffer any real political damage from failing to get the UK out by…

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Corbyn goes into the campaign with the worst Ipsos MORI opposition leader ratings it has ever recorded

Corbyn goes into the campaign with the worst Ipsos MORI opposition leader ratings it has ever recorded

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And it’s hard to see what the party can do about it Above are the latest satisfaction ratings from Ipsos-MORI which started polling in the late 1970s. As can be seen from the chart Johnson is now in positive territory, Swinson is a net minus 12, Farage a net minus 22 with the LAB leader on minus 60. There are equal the worst numbers for an opposition leader ever. No doubt LAB optimists will be pointing to what happened at…

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