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Latest polling round-up

31/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

New YouGov Times pollCON 36% =LAB 21% -2LD 18% =BRX 13% +1GRN 6% = — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2019 Survation Mail poll "favoured stance on Brexit"Johnson 41%Swinnson 23%Corbyn 15% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2019 From Survation/Mail poll42% of LAB supporters say they would be more likely to vote for the party if Corbyn stepped down; 18% say they would be less likely to vote LAB. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2019 LAB's equivocation stance on…

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New PB / Polling Matters podcast. And they’re off! General Election 2019 kicks off.

30/10/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the numbers as a December 12th election is announced. Who is best placed? What is the path to victory for each party and what should we look out for in the coming weeks? Listen to the podcast below: Follow this week’s guests Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet

Things that nobody knows. What to watch out for in the coming election

30/10/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Nobody knows anything. The results of the last two general elections and the referendum result have all come as a major surprise to all the wiseacres (including me). So it is time for a little humility and to think about some of the things we don’t yet know about this election. Here are a few. 1) What are the people who voted in 2017 and who are now saying “don’t know/won’t vote” going to do? In a recent YouGov poll,…

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All three main party leaders are in negative ratings territory with Corbyn’s numbers the worst

30/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Latest YouGov favourability trackers (FW Oct 23/24) If you had followed the 2017 General Election only through the prism of leader ratings then the actual outcome with the Labour recovery would have been less of a surprise. For these were showing that Theresa May’s numbers getting steadily worse and that Corbyn’s were improving very rapidly in the run up to election. Indeed by election day Corbyn had jumped out of negative territory. The ratings format I like the most and…

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How GE2019 is being treated on the front pages

30/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Here are some of today’s front pages and I don’t think there is anything as memorable as the Daily Mail at the same time in the process in 2017. There is much less Tory triumphalism. Its front page today is perhaps the most overtly political and highlights the twin worries for the Tories from the Lib Dems and the Brexit party which both threaten Johnson’s party in different ways. To the Sun and the Daily Express this is all about…

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With a December 12th election looking a near certainty punters rate Johnson’s majority chances at evens

29/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Swing Bellwethers: 2010, 2015, 2017 general elections So the waiting is almost over and Johnson has got his December 12th election date. The vote on the amendment to have it three days earlier was defeated and the government had a rare Commons victory. This is not the same proposal as the one defeated yesterday. Given the polling it is easy to see why punters on Betfair are putting their money on a Tory majority but there is a long time…

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How each of the constituencies voted at the Referendum

29/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The projections from Prof Chris Hanretty of Royal Holloway One thing’s for sure in the coming battle is how individual seats voted in the referendum on June 23rd 2016. Above is the standard reference on this projected by the leading political scientist, Prof Chris Hanretty of Royal Holloway. Most seats are just projections but in a number there are real results coming from councils which issued data down to ward level. I have the spreadsheet set up so that they…

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The General Election – identifying the top bellwether seats

29/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Every single GB constituency ranked by how close they’ve been to the national swings over the past 3 general elections Thanks to AndyJS for once again creating a very interesting and useful spreadsheet. He mentioned this on the previous the previous thread and I thought it deserved to be highlighted even more. Sure the fact that the top seat is Bedford has made this stand ot for me. Interestingly at the referendum Bedford’s leave percentage was almost exactly the same…

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