Are we going to see almost perpetual extensions? The latest extension of the Article 50 process is the third time this has happened and, as the latest YouGov polling shows, just 23% believe that we will be out on by the end of January next year. It is not as though an extension is unusual. By my counting this is the third time the process has been put back and, who knows, we could see the same happen again. Of…
If this is a target seat then you cannot fault their ambition This morning the above 8 page glossy A4 leaflet was delivered to my house by the postman (ie the distribution was paid for). What’s odd is not that this should happen but that I live in the Bedford parliamentary constituency which you could hardly describe as an LD prospect. At the last election this was a LAB gain from CON with the LDs getting just 5.9% of the…
With December 2019 general election looking more likely I have just placed another Commons seats spread bet with SportingIndex. With this form of betting the more you are right the more you win and the more you are wrong the more you lose. It lends itself very well to general election betting on things like how many seats will a party get. My latest bet is a BUY at 56 seats of the LDs on the LibDem 50 up market….
The Swinson December 9th plan could succeed As can be seen from the betdata.io chart there’s an increasing belief amongst punters that there will be a December general election. Later today the Commons will vote on Johnson’s motion under the FTPA for there to be an early election which he says would be on December 12th. Although he has named a specific date there is nothing that will make it happen then if 434 MPs do give it their blessing….
Fascinating finding from @OpiniumResearch 'Brexit referendum should never have been called, say majority of voters'https://t.co/Tgrgm69kyA — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 26, 2019 Hindsight is a wonderful thing Today’s Observer is reporting that Twice as many people now think it would have been better never to have held a referendum on Brexit than believe it was a good idea, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer. Asked to consider the difficulties the government has had in reaching an agreement, 57% of UK adults…
Ladbrokes have a market up on the turnout at the next general election and I can understand why the 65% to 70% band is the favourite as it is the band at what turnout has been at every general election this decade. If Boris Johnson is granted his desire and we have a December general election we will have a first general election in forty-five years that hasn’t been held in the April to June window. There’s a belief amongst…
? NEW: A new plan tonight to offer Boris Johnson the pre-Christmas election he craves. ? The Lib Dems have drawn up a bill that would allow Johnson to secure a December election with a simple majority of MPs. Crucially, the SNP will back it. THREAD. 1/6 pic.twitter.com/gCWe9pwfPF — Michael Savage (@michaelsavage) October 26, 2019 Their plan would be that the bill, if adopted by Johnson, could be taken through parliament on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. Parliament dissolves next Monday. Election…
A Tory by-election gain would be in line with current polling numbers Next week the LAB MP for Bassetlaw, John Mann is quiting as an MP to take up a government role fighting anti-semitism. He’ll be elevated to the House of Lords. This means that there will be a vacancy which in the normal course of things should lead to a by-election most likely in December. If the government doesn’t get its General Election motion through on Monday then when…