New polling finds fewer than 1 in 3 think that Brexit will happen by Jan 31st 2020

New polling finds fewer than 1 in 3 think that Brexit will happen by Jan 31st 2020

Are we going to see almost perpetual extensions?

The latest extension of the Article 50 process is the third time this has happened and, as the latest YouGov polling shows, just 23% believe that we will be out on by the end of January next year.

It is not as though an extension is unusual. By my counting this is the third time the process has been put back and, who knows, we could see the same happen again.

Of course so much depends on a general election which is looking more likely. Assuming that this goes ahead then everything depends on the outcome. If Johnson gets his desired majority then the chances of Brexit happening will be greater but what if he doesn’t? What if there’s another stalemate?

All the signs are that the Tories will lose seats in Scotland and to the LDs who are now polling at two to three times the level of GE2017. That means that they’ve got to offset the losses in gains from LAB. Where?

There’s also the complication of those MPs who are no longer within the parties that they were part of a GE2017. How many of those are going to be returned at the election? Quite a few, like Dominic Grieve, are going to be helped by the fact that the LDs and Greens are standing aside.

The standard theory that people vote for parties not their individual MP is going to be strongly tested.

Could we be heading for a period when we are neither fully in the EU or fully out of it.

The Tories are very much the party of Brexit which is not as popular as it was in the aftermath of the referendum. The Tories cannot rely on the DUP which feels betrayed by Johnson and really require a clear majority.

Mike Smithson

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