A Tory by-election gain would be in line with current polling numbers
Next week the LAB MP for Bassetlaw, John Mann is quiting as an MP to take up a government role fighting anti-semitism. He’ll be elevated to the House of Lords.
This means that there will be a vacancy which in the normal course of things should lead to a by-election most likely in December.
If the government doesn’t get its General Election motion through on Monday then when it is likely that the by-election would be called by Labour during the week and we could have an interesting fight in the sort of seat that the Tories need to be taking if they want to form the next government with a majority.
So far this Parliament Labour has been successful in fighting off by-election challenges as we saw in June in Peterborough. This is not a seat where that the Lib Dems would fancy their chances.
Given that Mann’s move has been known about for some time then no doubt the party machines are ready for the coming campaign.
My prediction – a LAB hold.