Kemi Badenoch bashes the bishops but the public disagrees with her
TSE
Perceptions versus reality
I find polling like this fascinating and allows explains why voters don’t always make rational decisions. TSE
I think this bet on this Florida Man is worth a punt
One of the reasons I have backed Ron DeSantis is that if the Trump presidency turns into a bit of a disaster (well more of a disaster than it currently is) then that damages the likes of J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio. Being a relative ‘clean skin’ would be an advantage for the Governor of Florida. TSE
Clive Lewis once called Wes Streeting a jumped up turd, it appears things haven’t improved
I am coming to the conclusion that Clive Lewis is not a fan of Wes Streeting, they once had an infamous Twitter spat. There are two things I am watching at the moment, if Andy Burnham repudiates this talk, and if Clive Lewis does trigger a by-election, will Sir Keir Starmer ensure the candidate for the by-election is from an all women shortlist. TSE
Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life
I look at a potential by-election in Norwich South and I cannot help think any by-election would be difficult for Labour to hold. They could be pincered senseless by the Greens on their left flank and Reform on their right flank. As we saw in Caerphilly a left wing party other than Labour could be the default stop Reform party, I cannot see Andy Burnham risking his political future on such a risky by-election. Such a by-election would be less…
The first cut is the lightest
UK finances are in a mess. Traditionally, the debate has been between the right, which favours a small-state but low-tax model like the US, and the left, which favours a Scandi-style high-tax but high level of services model. It feels like we are falling between 2 stools with high taxes and poor public services. Some numbers from the ONS (September 2025): All chancellors have their own special rules to pretend they have the finances under control. Reeves has clearly lost…
Why the Republicans are in a panic about Hispanics
America had some important elections earlier on this month and people have looked at the underlying numbers and one thing stands out, Hispanics swinging against the Republican party, given how Trump’s ICE have been behaving this is no surprise. When looking at next year’s mid-terms it will be worth looking at the demographics and where there’s a lot of Hispanics then Republican party will do worse. TSE
Present Keirs are less than horrible imaginings
After the last general election I awarded Sir Keir Starmer the title ‘Malleus ScotNatorum’ but the way things are headed I will be taking that title away next May. I find the first question fascinating as it shows just fewer than a quarter of Scots would consider voting Labour. Previously I have talked about about the potential for the Liberal Democrats to overtake Labour, perhaps Scotland might be the first place it happens. I am not sure there’s not any…