Like the various PPE scandals this story gives off the impression that the Tories are a bunch of spivs looking to make money through nefarious ways. Whilst the amount is quite low it just looks sleazy. If Craig Williams wanted to make money from political betting he should have followed my 20/1 tip in March that there would be a July election. TSE
I am struggling to see how Jeremy Hunt holds on to the Godalming & Ash seat where I the Lib Dems have been working hard to oust to the Chancellor of the Exchequer. As Chancellor I suspect Hunt will be focussed on national campaigning to the detriment of local campaigning (a bit like Chris Patten in 1992) and that’s bad for his chances even before we consider the issues the Tories face in the blue wall. Below are the odds…
The Post Office Scandal – Where Now? It would be a glorious apotheosis of the great big Post Office scandal if all the defendants stood trial together in a specially constructed cage, like those used for Mafia trials in Sicily – investigators, lawyers, consultants, accountants, Board members, civil servants, Ministers, the whole damned lot of them. Sadly, it ain’t gonna happen. It would not be very British, and in any case, there isn’t a cage or court room big enough. The numbers…
I would have thought the first poll showing Labour in the 30s would have an impact on the betting markets. One of the first things I learned visiting PB in the mid 2000s was a maxim by Sir Robert Worcester which was to ignore the lead but to focus on the share of the vote. I suspect why the betting market hasn’t moved is that appears to be an outlier, the Focaldata poll still has Labour in the 40s but…
Ladbrokes have a market up on what publicity shy antics Sir Ed Davey will get up to before election day. Using the golden rule that you should never get involved in a market where the bookie doesn’t offer both sides of the bet applies here. That said I cannot rule out the possibility of Sir Ed being fired out of a cannon. From the outside it appears the Lib Dems are desperate to become the third party again, with all…
This might be bad news for people betting against a 1931 style result in reverse. TSE
Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire are in part a section of the Red Wall. At present we have 22 MPs, 5 in Nottingham and Derby, and the other 17 in County seats. Back in March in the PB comments I suggested that of the 8 County seats in Nottinghamshire, currently all Conservative, 5 to 7 would flip to Labour – possibly excepting Newark (Robert Jenrick) which has a majority of 22k and is no 256 on Labour’s target list according to Election…
Although this polling from More in Common might be sub-optimal for Reform and Farage. Being seen as Dangerous, Idiot, and Racist isn’t how you win seats. TSE