As Tom Calver observes the assumptions for months, if not years, was that undecided voters would break for the Tories but that hasn’t happened so far. Based on an overall sample size of 42,269 the margin of error on this ‘subsample’ of 2,843 undecided voter is quite low, it’s not like a Scottish subsample of 42 people in Inverkeithing. The only kernel of good news for the Tories is that there is 43% of the undecideds are still undecided so…
If you want to understand (and you really should want to) how gender ideology – the belief that men can turn into women simply by saying so based on some internal feeling they have – captured so many public institutions and members of the political class in recent years, how, in particular, it led to the Gender Recognition Reform Act in Scotland (blocked by the UK government), how Scottish women mobilised and fought back against it and the price they…
There are eight seats which Labour won in 2019 adjusted for the new boundaries, but where you can get real odds (1/10 or longer) on them winning this time. The first four were covered earlier. The final four are below. All majorities below are the notional 2019 result on the new boundaries Islington North. Majority: 26,188. Odds: 13/8 (Ladbrokes) The Independent who needs no introduction, Jeremy Corbyn is taking on his own party having been pretty openly forced out by…
In 1997 Labour won a landslide with 146 gains and no losses. It stands to reason really: Their vote share rose by 8.8% nationally and with the bulk of voters deciding on national issues or loyalties that rising tide lifted all boats. Labour are currently polling roughly 10% above the 32.1% vote share Corbyn achieved in 2019, and yet the betting markets have them as outsides in two seats they hold. A further six seats have meaningful odds (1/10 or…
So for a bit of fun, I decided to look at the Survation MRP polling conducted between 31st May and 13th June. This showed that all but 72 Tory MPs would lose their seats and I wondered what the make up of the Tory party would look like after the election if this prediction came true. Below are listed the 72 MPs who Survation suggest will survive the Great Cull of 2024. They are listed from largest lead to smallest…
Based on the Survation MRP published last night Labour are in third place in Clacton just 3.1% behind Reform’s Nigel Farage, it can only take a little bit of movement and/or the MRP to be slightly out for Labour to come through the middle and win. Both Ladbrokes and Bet 365 have Labour 8/1 to win whilst Betfair have Labour at 13 and I reckon that’s worth a flutter although I expect this will be a bet that joins my…
The SNP figure seems a bit of an outlier, it will be interesting to see if other pollsters that showing similar scores. It will be quite something if the Tories only have 35 more MPs than the SNP who are only standing in just one part of the UK. The Reform seat figure seems high because of the way of FPTP but you might want to start buying Reform and SNP on the spreads and sell the Tories if this…
The key finding for me is ’74-76% dislike Rishi Sunak and the party’ which means it is very stupid to start sticking the Reform vote share to the Tory vote share. Under first past the post when you’re opponents are divided you do well, I suggest this is good news for Labour and the Lib Dems and is impacting my betting strategies. TSE