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The Telegraph are reporting that The Conservatives are anticipating that they will lose control of all the councils they are defending in Thursday’s local elections. A confidential memo to Kemi Badenoch, seen by the Telegraph, predicts that the Tories will lose up to 770 seats and all the mayoral elections that are taking place. The document said that the Conservatives expect Reform UK to pick up 500 seats and win the Runcorn by-election, with the Tories slumping to third. The party puts…

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I am expecting a very good night for Reform tonight and an equally bad night for the Tories and the market will respond, which might make the Tories and Labour a bit of value if their prices crater. Kemi Badenoch must be feeling like H.H. Asquith and Herbert Samuel, leaders of the Liberal Party as their party was eclipsed by the Labour Party. TSE

TSE

I know this is a Trafalgar but it does the issues facing America which sees Marjorie Taylor Greene winning the Republican primary race for the Senate seat then losing in the actual election to the Democratic Party candidate and incumbentJon Ossoff. The write up of the poll is here and the data tables are here. TSE

Tomorrow sees the first by-election of this parliament and it has the potential to be quite seismic if Reform win or to a lesser extent Labour hold on. One of the reasons I’ve not covered this by-election as much as I wanted to is that there’s been no real value in the markets, looking at the Reform vote share market at Ladbrokes there could be value in backing the 8/1 on Reform getting between 45% and 49.99%. Based on the…

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Despite tipping him to lose his seat at 14/1 I feel very sorry for Pierre Poilievre, but for Donald Trump, Poilievre would have become Prime Minister of Canada today. Today should serve as a salutary lesson for anybody predicting the outcome of the next UK general election which could be over four years away, a lot can happen in a short space of time. TSE

But for a few thousand votes here and there Pierre Poilievre would have become Prime Minister but it is likely he ends up losing his seat such are the fine margins of politics. It is quite the remarkable turnaround considering the Conservatives led by 27% in the polls in January, like Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal who led the Premier League for a record breaking 248 days in the 2022/23 season they blew it in the final stages. One of the hot…

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