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The Tories are losing the next election that is as certain as water being wet or the SNP arguing any day that ends with a ‘y’ is a mandate for Scottish independence but what remains uncertain (and makes this election so exciting) is the scale of the Tory defeat with anything from a 1997 style result to a 1931 in reverse result. Based on the Tweets atop this thread are in for a pounding of which there is no suitable…

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On the 4th May 1471 the Yorkist forces of Edward IV defeated the Lancastrian Army of Edward, Prince of Westminster in one of the most decisive battles of the Wars Of The Roses.   Although slightly outnumbered, the success of the White Rose gang was no great surprise and it is likely winning punters got little better than evens on their wagers.   Shrewd punters on the forthcoming election battle of Tewkesbury on July 4th 2024 may however do slightly better, and…

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This is further proof for me that there is a Labour mole at CCHQ. TSE

Each of the pollsters have different fieldworks and methodologies which explains the variations (and don’t dismiss a poll because the fieldwork is older, I mean do you want it quick or do you want it good?) This makes betting on politics so much fun, get it right on the spreads and you’re quids in and get it wrong and you’re going to the poorhouse. The Tories are getting walloped but even the best MRP has them losing worse than 1997…

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I am not a fan of the best PM metric because the incumbent PM usually ends up having an incumbency bias but this polling is quite notable that the Sunak is doing worse than Ed Davey. Clearly Davey’s stunts aren’t damaging but a vote a winner against Sunak. It may well be a harbinger that the Lib Dems do better in the Con v LD battlegrounds than the polls suggest. On current prices I don’t think the Lib Dems are…

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Alex Bogdan worked on the Ipsos MRP and I advise you all to pay heed to her comment in the fourth tweet especially if you bet on this election Full data here with maps and all. Of course you’re all sensible people and wouldn’t put too much weight on individual seat estimates because you know modelling can’t take into account all the complexities of local campaigns. I trust you all. TSE

It says a lot about the pickle the Tories find themselves in that a MRP showing the Tories on 115 seats feels like good news for them. Beyond Topline makes the astute observation above on why this MRP is better for the Tories than some other MRPs. I spoke to a political analyst a couple of days ago who said MRPs will always throw out a few constituency results which seem logic defying (Canterbury going Labour in 2017 anyone?) but…

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As a lifelong Tory it dawned on me recently that whilst July 4th would be a very bad day for the Tory party it has the potential to get much worse for the party afterwards and the story in the Mail on Sunday seems to confirm that. It is often said that Sir Keir Starmer is a lucky general and if the Tories and Reform remain fractured and trying to outdo each other on an extreme right wing agenda then…

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