The latest YouGov UC elections model has Biden 356 ECVs Trump 182
Latest from the Smarkets Exchange
Trump acolyte Lindsey Graham to fall victim to the blue wave?
A value bet at the current 33% Apart from choosing the president next week there are a whole host of other contests taking place in the US and I’ve been looking at some to see if I can find interesting betting opportunities. One of the fiercest and most expensive battles is going on for the Senate seat in South Carolina where the controversial long-standing Republican, Lindsey Graham is trying to fend off a furious high budget campaign by the Democrats…
READING THE TEA LEAVES: A LOOK AT NORTH CAROLINA EARLY VOTING
The North Carolina Board of Elections is great: they give you turnout by day, by type (mostly in person early voting), by gender and by party affiliation. This means you can compare the numbers to four years ago (when North Carolina also had an awful lot of early voting), and can draw some interesting conclusions. So, here they come: Turnout is up – and it’s mostly in person early voting. At this stage in 2016, 1.6 million people had voted early…
Hunger for change. The messed-up debate about free school meals
In the midst of this pandemic, it is more than usually desirable that we should make some slight provision for the poor and destitute, who suffer greatly at the present time. Many thousands are in want of common necessaries; hundreds of thousands are in want of common comforts. A few of us, led by Marcus Rashford, are endeavouring to provide the poor with some meat and drink. The government has decided for now to set its face against helping and…
This is starting to look like landslide territory.
What does Trump have in his armoury if the voters trust Joe Biden more on the economy? A fortnight ago I said that with the pollster Quinnipiac Donald Trump was the preferred choice of the American voters to manage the economy, but it is becoming clear that with a few pollsters Trump doesn’t hold that advantage. As with the UK general election of 2015 and the EU referendum the following year it was clear (in hindsight) that the supplementaries were…
My logic for bailing out of the spread betting markets on this year’s White House Race
I’ll let you all into a little secret, it is entirely possible the stonking huge polling leads that Biden has turn out to be accurate but he still doesn’t win the Presidency. One scenario is where Biden gets votes where he doesn’t need them and Trump gets the votes where he needs them, but the scenario I’m going to look at today is that America isn’t a functioning democracy. With a pandemic on it has been obvious for some time…
Announcing the PB WH2020 election night Zoom “party”
Thanks to Barnesian, whose idea it was and whose Zoom account we will be using, there will be a PB Election night Zoom gathering. The thinking is to start just before midnight when the polls close in Florida when we should start to get real numbers about what the American people have decided and who will be the next President. This will be the biggest political night that many of us have ever experienced and it would be great to…
The polling gets tighter and tighter in Texas yet on Betfair Biden is still a 27% chance
Above is the latest chart from FiveThirtyEight of the polling trend in Texas – the state with 38 ECVs which of it itself would be enough to give Biden the Presidency. This is where there has seen an explosion in in-person early voting which the Republican governor was prevented by the courts from trying to impede. So far a colossal 6,391,021 have voted there with 5,603,359 of them voting in person. This represents more 70% of the total percent of…