The final debate: Trump better than last time but this was no game-changer

The final debate: Trump better than last time but this was no game-changer

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Betting at 0415 BST Biden 66% Trump 34% I did not stay up to watch the debate but from the reactions I’ve managed to collate it is clear that Trump did better than the first debate but he scored no knockout blows against Biden. In the betting Trump edged up 2% and Biden dropped 2% on Betfair. This was from the verdict by Taegan Goddard at PoliticalWire: After the chaotic and mostly incoherent first presidential debate, Donald Trump’s advisers pleaded…

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As we go into the final WH2020 debate Biden edges up further in the betting

As we go into the final WH2020 debate Biden edges up further in the betting

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Overnight there is the last in the programme of TV debates between Trump and Biden. There were going to be three of them but Trump would not agree to the terms set out by the independent debates commission which meant second one did not take place. Tonight’s event includes a new feature – the contenders will be muted while the other is making statements. This comes at a time when maybe a third of Americans have already voted with in…

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Where are the defectors?

Where are the defectors?

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From longstanding PBer & former LAB MP Nick Palmer I’ve been active in politics for over 50 years, and some things stay the same. The traditional themes – the economy, the NHS, relations with Europe. The reductionist media, simplifying every election to a choice of leaders. The conviction that the current moment is exceptional, and nothing will ever be the same again. But one traditional element has been missing in recent years. It used to be quite common for politicians…

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At the 2018 midterms, the last time US pollsters were tested in national elections, the Democrat margin was 1.1% better than predicted

At the 2018 midterms, the last time US pollsters were tested in national elections, the Democrat margin was 1.1% better than predicted

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  Twelve days before what has become the biggest political betting event of all time it is worth reminding ourselves at how well US pollsters performed the last time they were tested in a real set of elections. The above Real Clear Politics table gives quite a degree of confidence. The main elections taking place in November 2018 were for the House and as can be seen most of the final polls were in the right territory having Democratic margins…

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If Florida flips, as the polls are suggesting, then Trump is doomed

If Florida flips, as the polls are suggesting, then Trump is doomed

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Florida with its 29 electoral votes has been looking pretty good for Biden and the current FiveThirtyEight average has Biden 3.5% ahead. What makes this interesting from a betting perspective is that as I write Trump and Biden are running at fifty-fifty on the Betfair exchange. Essentially those betting on Trump at this price are gambling that the polls are wrong. Given that the last time Trump was ahead in the polling average was back in March this is what…

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Home truths about Covid-19

Home truths about Covid-19

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OK, time to take stock.  Covid-19 cases are rising again.  Where should we go from here?  Plenty of others will use the statistics to construct arguments for preferred courses of action.  I intend instead to focus on some big, simple and mostly unpalatable truths.   The tiered restrictions will likely only slow the growth of the virus   SAGE, our best-informed experts, believe that.  While they’ve hardly given a great account of themselves so far in this crisis, we have no reason…

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What makes the Texas battle intriguing is the historic polling understatement of the Democrats in the state

What makes the Texas battle intriguing is the historic polling understatement of the Democrats in the state

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Biden winning here the best value bet of WH2020? At WH2016 the Texas final polls had Trump beating Clinton by 11.7% compared with a 9% margin on the day. Two years later, at the 2018 midterms, the RCP polling average had Republican Senator Ted Cruz beating Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 6.8%. In the end Cruz just managed it with a margin of 2.6%. Currently the FiveThirtyEight average has Trump ahead of Biden in the state by just 1.2%. It is…

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The Johnson/Cummings power grab is in danger of undermining democracy

The Johnson/Cummings power grab is in danger of undermining democracy

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The above Tweet sets out clearly and succinctly how the Johnson/Cummings team is seeking to undermine many bodies and to bring power presumably, to Dom itself. This is the man, of course, who at the height of the pandemic in April decided that the rules didn’t apply to him and when all was revealed Johnson failed to do anything about it. Clearly with an 80+ majority the government is in a strong position but I just wonder how Tory back…

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