Bloomberg pumping millions into Texas and Ohio in final week dash to flip the states for Biden

Bloomberg pumping millions into Texas and Ohio in final week dash to flip the states for Biden

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The Texas Tribune report above features the latest move by multi-billionaire and former White House contender, Michael Bloomberg, to help Joe Biden take Texas (38 ECVs) and Ohio (18 ECVs). The paper notes: For the most part, both Biden and President Donald Trump have avoided general election campaigning in Texas. Trump hasn’t visited the state since the summer, while Biden’s last appearance was in March. In the last month, however, Biden has sent a flurry of surrogates to the state…

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I’ve finally bet on Biden as next President at a 67% chance

I’ve finally bet on Biden as next President at a 67% chance

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Ever since the 2020 White House Race started formally ahead of the first primary TV debates in June last year I have been very critical of Joe Biden and never thought that he would get the nomination. I wrote here many times that it was ridiculous for a man of his age to be seeking such an office and I sort of assumed that something would happen during the primary campaign that would raise doubts about him that would effectively…

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Why the early results on the night might be deceptive

Why the early results on the night might be deceptive

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A week to go and perhaps a good moment to pass on a observation about how information might come out on election night because of the different ways that each state will out count. Interestingly there is a big divide between the must win states for Biden and the more marginal states. For the early information from the former looks set to be more negative for Biden while what was we get first from the latter group of states will…

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Whoops – I nearly made an elementary mistake betting on a Senate Democratic majority

Whoops – I nearly made an elementary mistake betting on a Senate Democratic majority

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Flicking through the Betfair WH2020 markets a few minutes ago I was taken with the longer than evens price currently available on the Democrats winning a majority in the Senate. Given the way opinion has been going in the US over the past few weeks then this objective for the party is surely within reach and they should come out of next week’s election controlling the House, the White House and the Senate. I had got to the stage of…

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Trump acolyte Lindsey Graham to fall victim to the blue wave?

Trump acolyte Lindsey Graham to fall victim to the blue wave?

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A value bet at the current 33% Apart from choosing the president next week there are a whole host of other contests taking place in the US and I’ve been looking at some to see if I can find interesting betting opportunities. One of the fiercest and most expensive battles is going on for the Senate seat in South Carolina where the controversial long-standing Republican, Lindsey Graham is trying to fend off a furious high budget campaign by the Democrats…

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READING THE TEA LEAVES: A LOOK AT NORTH CAROLINA EARLY VOTING

READING THE TEA LEAVES: A LOOK AT NORTH CAROLINA EARLY VOTING

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The North Carolina Board of Elections is great: they give you turnout by day, by type (mostly in person early voting), by gender and by party affiliation. This means you can compare the numbers to four years ago (when North Carolina also had an awful lot of early voting), and can draw some interesting conclusions. So, here they come: Turnout is up – and it’s mostly in person early voting. At this stage in 2016, 1.6 million people had voted early…

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Hunger for change. The messed-up debate about free school meals

Hunger for change. The messed-up debate about free school meals

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In the midst of this pandemic, it is more than usually desirable that we should make some slight provision for the poor and destitute, who suffer greatly at the present time. Many thousands are in want of common necessaries; hundreds of thousands are in want of common comforts. A few of us, led by Marcus Rashford, are endeavouring to provide the poor with some meat and drink. The government has decided for now to set its face against helping and…

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