My only eve of election bet has been on Biden in Florida where the latest round of polls as collated by MSNBC above has him with a fighting chance of victory. Yet on Betfair Obama’s former VP is rated as a 44% chance with Trump on 56%. Quite why is hard to say and I have decided to have what for me is a largish bet. On Nate Silver’s site you have to go back to early April to find…
For this to work it requires a huge GOTV operation and overcoming COVID fears Just about the whole world is aware by now of how Trump intends to declare that the election was rigged against him. He’s attached a special premium to those who vote on the day compared with those 94,006,161 Americans who have already cast their ballots either by voting in person or be using the mail. His first big problem is COVID itself which at the end…
Savanta Comres poll finds 72% supporting the latest Johnson measures Latest polling conducted by Savanta ComRes , afte Johnson’s announcement, shows strong support for new four-week lockdown. Almost three quarters say they support the measures (72%), with just 15% saying that they oppose them. Support is highest for closing pubs, bars and restaurants, with three quarters of English adults supporting it (76%), and just one in ten opposing it (12%). Around half (47%) say they support schools, colleges, and universities staying open,…
As Maine goes, so goes the nation? I suspect apart from the senate result Maine won’t be high on the priorities of election watchers on Tuesday as the common consent is that Biden should win the state easily (he’s currently around 1/7 on Betfair to win Maine.) So why all eyes on Maine, no not because of the fantastic lobsters Maine offers but because Maine will be the first state ever to use ranked choice voting for a Presidential election. The form…
Another example of why 2020 is unlike 2016? The betting markets are baffling to some, if the polls were reversed and Trump had the leads Biden currently has Trump’s odds on Betfair would be something close to 1.01 as opposed to Biden’s 1.5. But there’s plenty of indicators 2020 is not like 2016, like the charts above. My view is that the Dems are on course to retain the House, if they do that my hunch is that Biden also…
The story of 2016 was tycoon businessman Trump running against Dem nominee Clinton whose appeal I could personally never work out. Neither could the voters that mattered in the rust belt, so Clinton lost albeit by a small margin. 4 years on and the USA looks very different. In the midst of a global pandemic, Trump and Mitch McConnell have built an unholy infrastructure which threatens the very existence of the USA’s democracy. The courts Trump and Mitch McConnell have…
The final weekend before Tuesday’s election and a lot of activity on the UK betting markets where punters had been viewing Trump’s chances quite a bit better than the US data analysts. Above is the latest Betdata.io chart showing the Betfair exchange market where a colossal £241,037,171 has now been traded. I’m now focusing on state betting where the polling shows Biden being very competitive but where UK punters, as I have been reporting, are putting more on Trump. I’ve…
One of the extraordinary things about the the American election on Tuesday is the level of early voting. This is partly being driven by the efforts of the Republicans to curtail it and of course ongoing suggestions that Trump will try to steal the election in some form. The chart above is based on data from the the excellent election project site which is gathering huge amount of data and regular updates. The States I’ve chosen to include in the…