Sitting Priti or Priti Vacant. Will Priti Patel still be in the cabinet on the 1st of March 2021?

Sitting Priti or Priti Vacant. Will Priti Patel still be in the cabinet on the 1st of March 2021?

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These types of markets on whether X will still be in the cabinet on certain date is the sort of market I much prefer over next out of the cabinet markets because of the dead heat rules the value can be extinguished. So will Patel be in the cabinet on the 1st of March 2021? After his backing of Priti Patel after the report into her bullying across more than one department you’d think she was safe but I was…

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Would the real Keir Starmer please stand up?

Would the real Keir Starmer please stand up?

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2020 has not been short of challenges. Covid-19, the ensuing economic fall-out and the final stages of Brexit have been playing out. By and large, the government has proven unequal to the challenge. That is not just my opinion, but that of the public at large.  Just 34% of the public were satisfied with the government’s handling of Covid-19 in the last YouGov survey on the matter and 52% of the public disapprove of the government’s record to date with just 27% approving….

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The UK set to be the first where people are vaccinated

The UK set to be the first where people are vaccinated

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One of the big gambles that Johnson and his team has made has been to pre-order tens of millions of vaccines spread out across different potential suppliers. The big one is for the Oxford jab which is now going through its final tests with the expectation that it will soon be available. This afternoon’s news is that approval of the Pfizer vaccine, which has also be pre-bought by the government, is set to get the thumbs up in days and…

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Rebuilding a Nation: Unionists need to engage in a battle of both hearts and minds

Rebuilding a Nation: Unionists need to engage in a battle of both hearts and minds

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But it’s a task singularly ill-suited to Boris Johnson TV used to be so much simpler. When I was growing up, there were only three, then four channels (though Channel 4 didn’t start up until mid-afternoon). If you wanted On Demand, you had to use a Video Recorder. Viewing was entirely through the box (and TVs were boxy) and the only thing resembling an internet was Ceefax and Oracle. They were also almost entirely passively consumed: no ‘e-mail, text or…

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Betfair responds to critics over its delay in settling Wh2020 bets

Betfair responds to critics over its delay in settling Wh2020 bets

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The firm issued the following statement this evening: We have not settled certain markets on the Betfair Exchange relating to the U.S. election because of the uncertainty about the outcome of the results caused by ongoing recounts and potential legal challenges. Given our responsibility to both backers and layers to ensure that the markets are settled correctly and given the unprecedented amount of money that has been traded on these markets, we have sought advice from leading U.S. lawyers to…

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With just over a month to go punters still confident that there’ll be a UK-EU deal

With just over a month to go punters still confident that there’ll be a UK-EU deal

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Above is the market from Smarkets which, as can be seen has moved about a fair bit over the past year. This is a huge event for British politics yet it has been totally overshadowed by COVID and the US election. I think there is going to be a deal but I’m not tempted by the odds. These are the betting market rules so you know what you are risking your money on. If the UK and EU sign a…

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I’ve just laid Trump at an 8% chance on Betfair

I’ve just laid Trump at an 8% chance on Betfair

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The Betfair next President market continues to be totally potty and over the past 24 hours we have seen Trump’s chances move from 3% to an 8% one. Quite what people are thinking who are backing Trump is hard to say. Just about all the incumbent’s efforts to declare the results a fraud have failed to get backing from within the Republican party. Based on Betfair’s rules for the market it is nigh impossible, surely, for anyone else to be…

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