These types of markets on whether X will still be in the cabinet on certain date is the sort of market I much prefer over next out of the cabinet markets because of the dead heat rules the value can be extinguished.
So will Patel be in the cabinet on the 1st of March 2021? After his backing of Priti Patel after the report into her bullying across more than one department you’d think she was safe but I was intrigued by a story in last week’s Sunday Times which said
Boris Johnson is set to axe Priti Patel as home secretary in his next reshuffle amid questions in Downing Street over her “competence” — as it emerged that a report into her conduct found that she told civil servants they were “f***ing useless”.
The prime minister circled the wagons to protect Patel last week, rejecting an official finding that she had bullied officials and broken the ministerial code of conduct.
But multiple sources say he has had conversations about replacing her as home secretary when he recasts his cabinet in the New Year.
Kit Malthouse, the policing minister who was Johnson’s deputy mayor for policing in London and is a confidant of the PM, is favourite to take over the job, with Michael Gove and Dominic Raab also in the frame. Patel, 48, who is popular with the Tory grassroots, is tipped to be made party chairwoman.….
…“The view of the political operation in No 10 was always that she should be protected,” a senior Tory said. “But there is also a view that she should be reshuffled on competence grounds. There is continual frustration that the Home Office has not got a grip on things, the small boats in particular.”
The insider said Johnson was “impressed” by Malthouse’s grasp of policy and others say he has acted as a personal support to Johnson since he fell ill with the virus in April.
I suspect Boris Johnson needs the ardent Brexiteer Priti Patel, who once shamefully suggested using food shortages to bully Ireland in the Brexit negotiations, to help sell any Brexit deal to the Conservative Party, once she’s served her purpose move her on.
I know the concept of Boris Johnson using a woman for his own needs then discarding her when he no longer needs her is an alien concept, given the way the name Boris Johnson is associated with fidelity and loyalty, but in the world of politics politicians can and have to be cynical like that.
The thing is I’m not sure Priti Patel will accept the demotion from one of the great offices of state. The last Home Secretary to accept a demotion inside the cabinet was David Waddington who became Leader of the House of Lords, which happened exactly thirty years ago yesterday.
So I’m going to back the 3/1 on that basis.