politicalbetting.com

One of the reasons I have been laying Andy Burnham as next Prime Minister is the logistics of him becoming an MP. Firstly I thought if there were to be a by-election engineered to get Burnham back into parliament then Starmer has the power to ensure an all-women shortlist. Secondly any by-election which could be described as the opportunity to choose the next Prime Minister could turn into an uttter poopshow for Labour, even before the current polling environment. I…

Read More Read More

TSE

Over the last decade I see to be writing a lot about porn stars, first there was Stormy Daniels who potentially could have resulted in a mushroom shaped cloud over the first Trump presidency now there’s Bonnie Blue. I suspect the Bonnie Blue endorsement will generate more heat than light and give satirists a lot of fun but I do think it will cause the likes of Danny Kruger problems given he recently said ‘I think it’s a problem in…

Read More Read More

At the last election the Liberal Democrats polled nearly 600,000 fewer votes than Reform yet ended up with 67 more MPs than Reform. I mention this because I was speaking with a Liberal Democrat about the dog that hasn’t barked, the Lib Dems not surging in the polls given the implosion of both the traditional big two parties, but several pollsters have the Lib Dems in fifth place but 2024 showed that is irrelevant with good targeting. Starmer’s 2024 victory…

Read More Read More

TSE

This evening several media outlets have published an exclusive (sic) story about how Andy Burnham is planning on becoming an MP so he can succeed Sir Keir Starmer, The Sunday Times report Allies of Burnham, a former health secretary, are understood to have canvassed support from members of the Socialist Campaign Group of Labour MPs, which includes Burgon, Diane Abbott and John McDonnell. Clive Lewis, who offered last month to give up his Norwich South seat to Burnham, is also…

Read More Read More

I know a lot of attention will be focussed on Reform now having the most members but for me the most interesting thing is that Labour’s membership has cratered. But opponents of Reform shouldn’t get too disheartened, Labour under Jeremy Corbyn saw Labour membership increase to over 500,000 but it still didn’t stop Labour getting beaten in two general elections under Corbyn, size isn’t important, it’s what you do with it that counts, Nigel. TSE

Please note this thread does not constitute investment advice, please consult your own financial adviser before making any investment decisions relating to this article, the value of your investments can go up as well as down. If Liz Truss and Robert Tchenguiz succeed in getting people to pay £500,000 each to be a founding member then perhaps I have misunderestimated the appeal and popularity of Liz Truss. TSE