politicalbetting.com

Why is it that the US’s vaunted constitutional protections, separations of powers and independent institutions we have heard so much about over the years have just dissolved like wet tissue? Putting them in a Constitution, in founding documents may make them seem important and venerable. But stripped of all the historical baggage, they are like all procedures. They work because it is assumed that everyone understands their point, acts in good faith and with a modicum of good judgment (or…

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TSE

But I still think punters are wrong, if Labour look like being eclipsed by Reform then I’d expect Sir Keir Starmer to stand down before the election and let somebody from the Labour side to take over. TSE PS – The Times have lifted their paywall so it is worth reading this story about Dominic Cummmings meeting with Nigel Farage on trying to unite the right, click here.

Picture: Recent vandalism carried out at Donald Trump’s golf course in Scotland. There has been a lot of wishful thinking when it comes to Scottish independence on both sides such as devolution killing Scottish nationalism stone dead or Sir Keir Starmer becoming Malleus ScotNatorum at the 2024 general election. On the other side of the argument, inter alia, Brexit/Boris Johnson as PM/the pandemic/certain Supreme Court rulings would inexorably lead to Scottish independence and perhaps my headline will join that ignominious…

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As Lord Ashcroft can attest by-election polling can be very challenging so I always remain sceptical about all by-election polling but there are some hope for both Reform and Labour in the supplementaries. Best PM polling usually has an incumbency bias so is only notable when somebody other than the incumbent PM leads so Nigel Farage will be chuffed to have a clear lead in the constituency. Labour will be encouraged that most people in the seat expect Labour to…

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The latest polling from Ipsos brings some good news for Sir Keir Starmer with his ratings improving but the most important polling is showing support for rearmament even if it means higher taxes and/or cuts to public services. TSE

When betting on elections outside of America we might now have to start considering the impact of Donald Trump in those elections. We could see some Populist Right party leading in the polls in the UK for years then in the run up to say a 2028 UK general election and Donald Trump could have a real go at Sir Keir Starmer and the UK which leads to an even bigger Labour landslide than in 2024. TSE

It was the economy which won Donald Trump the presidency last year but the way things are going then it won’t be long until Americans start comparing him to a lettuce. TSE