I can’t get no satisfaction
This is a fascinating analysis and if it holds true at the election we might be able to extrapolate where Reform (and the Lib Dems) will do better which has important betting considerations. TSE
Reform, no joy just division. Will Lowe tear us apart?
I am no fan of Rupert Lowe but everybody with a sense of decency will be delighted for him today. I noted at the time of his suspension that timing felt odd, on Thursday he criticised Nigel Farage publicly and the next day he had the whip removed over these allegations. Now that he has been vindicated I expect Lowe’s libel action against Farage, Lee Anderson, and Zia Yusuf will now accelerate which will cause problems for them, this is…
Americans expect tariffs to hurt America and the world
TSE
Why Boris Johnson is not the answer
Last week More In Common published a poll that said if Boris Johnson became Tory leader he would turn a 8 point lead for Reform into a 3 point lead for the Tories. Longstanding readers of PB know my view about multilevel hypothetical polls, they are the Hawaiian pizzas of opinion polls and they should be rejected by right thinking people everywhere as I explained here. If Boris Johnson became Tory leader again then Nigel Farage would use the stats…
From penumbra to umbra?
Ipsos note A new Ipsos in the UK poll reveals that the British public is slightly more likely to consider Reform UK the main opposition and believe that Nigel Farage is now more likely to become Prime Minister than Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch. This is as dissatisfaction with the Labour government and Prime Minister Keir Starmer remains high I wonder if we would have seen similar polling in 1981/82 about the Alliance/SDP and the two Davids, a reminder insurgent parties…
She may be gone but the Truss legacy still endures
I have said for sometime that the Liz Truss interregnum will do for the Tories what the Winter of Discontent did for Labour or Black Wednesday for the Tories, it destroys a political brand for a generation. TSE
In February 2025 Trump had a 99% approval rating
I missed these McLaughlin & Associates polls in February but a reminder that some American pollsters are like jockstraps, full of bollocks. John McLaughlin is Donald Trump’s private pollster. We should be grateful for the British Polling Council. TSE
America is going to the dogs
YouGov America have some fascinating polling when it comes to dog/pet owners. As a cat owner/slave to a cat I am delighted to see my fellow cat owners are a net negative when it comes to Trump but what is going on with dog owners? TSE