The trend on the Smarkets exchange is very clear – punters now rate it a 75% chance that there will be a deal by the end of the month and certainly the apparent concession by Boris appears to have gone down well in Brussels. The chart shows the ups and downs in betting opinion over the 11 months and all the talk a few days ago that no deal was inevitable has changed. Like all bets of this nature iit…
And Betfair finally pays out What has been by far the biggest political betting market ever was finally resolved overnight when the Electoral College met and Biden is now officially the President-elect. But there is another hurdle. The results get reported to Congress on January 6th and if members in both houses decide to put it to the vote then that will take place in both the House an Senate. The former should be fine for Biden but the Senate…
Please allow me to introduce myself, I’m a ma … I’m an interesting and important character. I don’t exist, will never exist, yet I lurk in the minds of millions and am discussed and written about constantly. Most fear me, some worship, only the hardiest, most detached souls are indifferent. Am I the Devil? No. As I say, I don’t exist. The Devil might. And He is not trading at a ridiculously short price in the current betting markets. Who…
While all eyes in the US are focused on the Electoral College vote count which is taking place today in Europe there’ve been positive indications from the talks in Brussels with the EU and UK agreeing to keep talks on a trade agreement going. There are still differences but there does appear to be a desire on both sides to find an agreement and this is what has driven the changes on Smarkets exchange betting market as in their chart…
As the Betdarta.io chart shows the Betfair WH2020 is still open more than five weeks after other bookies settled Biden as the winner. The total of matched bets on Betfair is now heading for £1.7m BILLION which is up more than billion since the other bookies settled their markets in the weekend after the election. What has driven the continuation of this market has been the readiness of some punters to bet on Donald Trump even though the numbers are…
“Democracy in Europe” by Larry Siedentop, written when the EU was trying to draft a constitution is, despite its age, worth a read. Surprising as it may seem, given the US’s own current democratic difficulties, the outsider’s analysis of what constitutions mean, how they are arrived at, different views of democracy and how these interact with a Continent’s history, culture and religions is acute. It is one which European and British politicians would have done well to consider before embarking…
The failure of Trump to win re-election last month and his absolute determination not to acknowledge the fact is creating some amazing oddities for the Republican party. The latest legal appeal that went to the Supreme Court was actually backed by more than 100 members of the House of Representatives and 8 of them were from the four states where Trump is trying to annul the results. The reason they felt pressured to do this and why there has been…
It’s not exactly gone as Leavers planned, has it? We’ve reached the stage where they’re angrily blaming everyone else for the outcome, while simultaneously trying to claim that it’s glorious. It’s hard not to wince watching them doing the splits. For it turns out that many of the things that Remainers said were true. It wasn’t possible to leave the EU with the exact same benefits. It wasn’t the easiest deal in history. The eagles aren’t coming and the German…