Boris’s Christmas U-turn ain’t going to be good for his popularity

Boris’s Christmas U-turn ain’t going to be good for his popularity

The holiday plans of millions are going to be messed up The real political problem with this afternoon’s announcement is that it comes only a few weeks after he had announced a relaxation for five days over Christmas. At the time this was widely criticised and thought by many to be taking too much of a risk. But on the basis of the previous announcement millions of people made their plans accordingly and were looking forward to being with loved…

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The other side of the bet. The ethics of political gambling.

The other side of the bet. The ethics of political gambling.

Gambling doesn’t exactly have a good reputation.  Most Christian denominations are very chary of  it (my mother’s church had only recently relaxed the ban on church tombolas when we moved to the area in 1978). It is haram for Muslims. Even among agnostics and atheists few would regard it as a laudable activity. Some of these moral objections come from the greed that the lure of large prizes can provoke. Some comes out of the potential impact on losers. We all have…

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Liz Truss moves from a 100/1 shot for next PM to 33/1 in just two weeks

Liz Truss moves from a 100/1 shot for next PM to 33/1 in just two weeks

One cabinet figure who is getting a lot of attention today is Liz Truss, the International trade Secretary, following a speech she gave setting out her thoughts on elements in modern politics and where the Tories are different. This comes after a successful period for her in negotiating trade deals which will be so important for the UK after Brexit is fully implemented. Two weeks ago I reported here that Truss was once again topping the leader satisfaction ratings for…

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For years Trump’s favourite term of abuse was “loser” – now he’s in danger of owning the brand

For years Trump’s favourite term of abuse was “loser” – now he’s in danger of owning the brand

Those who are older enough will remember GE1997 and one of the highlights of the coverage – a live broadcast from the Enfield Southgate constituency where prominent Tory cabinet minister Michael Portillo was defending an 18,000 majority. He lost and the manner and gracious way he responded to this disastrous outcome brought accolades from all sides. Contrast that with Donald Trump in the six and a half weeks since the presidential election which saw him lose to Biden by million…

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The Republicans are just holding on by fractions in the latest Georgia runoffs’ polling

The Republicans are just holding on by fractions in the latest Georgia runoffs’ polling

The above polling averages charts from Nate Silver’s site show the tightness of the two Senate runoff races that will be held on January 5th. If the Republican lose both then the Democrats will control the Senate, the House and, of course the Presidency. These runoffs are happening because in November neither election was won by someone with 50% of the vote. Georgia, of course, was a surprise win for Biden in the White House race So much is at…

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In choosing Buttigieg for his cabinet Biden could be preparing the ground for a possible successor

In choosing Buttigieg for his cabinet Biden could be preparing the ground for a possible successor

With the inauguration on January 20th getting closer Joe Biden’s going through the process almost everyday of announcing new members of his team. Of all of them so far the most well-known name came yesterday with the choice of Pete Buttigieg to be the transportation secretary. This should give the 39 year old former Mayor of South Bend Indiana a continuing media presence something he did very successfully on behalf of the President elect during the election campaign. Time and…

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The Small Print

The Small Print

When you bet on football, by and large you know whether you’ve won or lost.  There are rules.  There’s a referee.  You can argue about whether a goal should have been given but you can’t argue about whether it was given.  There is little room for interpretation most of the time. Betting on politics is not always so straightforward.  The refereeing is more complicated.  Even when dealing with something as granular as vote-counting, the participants can and do sometimes argue…

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Boris’s big Christmas gamble

Boris’s big Christmas gamble

It is a very fine gamble for Christmas – not actually tightening the regulations that can be legally enforced but rather toughening up the guidance for how people should operate during the 5 designated days of the Christmas period. You can see how conflicted ministers have been because if there had been any more tougher controls then those affected could say said they had planned Christmas and in many cases laid out money on what had been announced previously. But…

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