I think punters are slowly realising that two failed assassination attempts on Gerald Ford didn’t help him win the 1976 presidential election. The frequent crossovers between Harris and Biden is fascinating. TSE
The two things that stand out for me is the Lib Dems having such broad popularity which if they maintain until the next election means they should do well with tactical voting. Secondly why simply adding the Reform and Tory vote shares in polls and thinking that is the way for the Tories to win again is a deeply flawed idea. TSE
Shall I tell you a story. It’s an American story, but it’s generally applicable. In the US, there was once a President called Barack Obama. While he was President, the number of people crossing the Southern Border into the US continued the decline that had started under his predecessor, George W Bush, falling from 723,000 in 2008 to just 416,000 in 2016. Then Donald Trump became President, and made a terribly big fuss about the Southern Border. Democrats weren’t very…
it is often said winners of Tory leadership contests win because they aren’t somebody else. IDS and William Hague won because they weren’t Ken Clarke, John Major won to some extent because he wasn’t Michaael Heseltine in the eyes of many Thatcherites, whilst five years later Major won because he wasn’t John Redwood and I wonder if 2024 will see a repeat. Suella Braverman only has two flaws, everything she says and everything she does, whilst Kemi Badenoch has nothing…
I had a private discussion with a few friends before the election and I said the Starmer premiership might be derailed/impacted if the Donald Trump wins the presidential election this year, his new running mate is what I was talking about. I expect the new Trump administration to sell out Ukraine, that is inevitable as night following day, and J.D. Vance’s comments are a pointer to that. If Putin succeeds in conquering Ukraine then he won’t stop there and with…
The Times report The Conservatives are expected to use their party conference to hold the hustings between the final two candidates for leader amid concerns that the party doesn’t have enough money for a longer contest. The 1922 committee, which represents backbench MPs, and the board of the Conservative Party are this week expected to set out the timetable for the contest. Under the plans being considered MPs will whittle down the contenders — there are expected to be as…
The Trump campaign has a great deal of thanks to give to Evan Vucci. For it is he that has taken what will be the defining photo of the 2024 US election. Whether you like it or not, the picture is not dissimilar to that most iconic of American photos – the flag raising atop Mount Suribachi during the final stages of the Pacific War (Iwo Jima). This I believe will resonate particularly with older voters and strengthens Trump’s (Although…
OFSTED. At the moment, OFSTED is undergoing a review led by Christine Gilbert into its performance and practices. Why Gilbert, I have no idea. It seems unlikely that any changes will happen before the review concludes. Labour have pledged to bring in report cards instead of overall judgements, but how that works in practice, if it ever does, remains unclear. The unloved curriculum framework, which may be politely described as a fucking train crash, seems set to stay for now…