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Following on from our discussion yesterday on Joe Biden the chart above shows how punters are increasingly negative about Kamala Harris’s chances of becoming the next President at WH2024. This follows declining poll ratings for the VP and a series of reports suggesting that all is not well in her office. This is from The Hill “Six months into office, polls indicate Harris is viewed less favorably than President Biden. She has also made some tactical missteps outside of the…

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Rishi is on the rise Back in November 2019 less than a fortnight before the general election longstanding PBer, Philip Thompson, had a guest slot here in which he suggested that the then 200/1 that Ladbokes offering on Sunak as next PM looked like a great value bet. What prompted Philip Thompson to suggest that big things might be in the offing for Rishi was that “Sunak has been earmarked by Boris to represent the Conservative Party in the 7-way…

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Last night’s Redfield poll followed a week when the Tory lead was getting narrower and could suggest that things might be changing. As can be seen the CON lead went up to 7% compared with 4% the week before. The big thing about that poll was another very good share, 11%, for the LDs which compares with the 6% from Deltapoll only a few days before. We’ll obviously have to wait for two or three more surveys before we can…

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Joe Biden will be 79 in November and provided his health holds then he’ll surely seek to retain the White House at WH2024. So far his approval ratings are just about holding up and next time the Dems will face a party that is now in the total control of Trump who would be a not too difficult opponent to face even though he is still in denial about what happened last November. Actually, I don’t think he believes a…

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Time to be bet on a possible early exit? Every month we have the Conservative Home satisfaction ratings of cabinet ministers and the big feature of the latest one is the position of the PM. He’s down since last month a massive 36% and has a net satisfaction rating of just 3.4. As one of the many comments on the site put it “Boris should have learned the lesson from his predecessor. People don’t like dithering, and don’t like being…

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The “99%” certain CON gain according to the exit poll At about 4pm on election night in December 2019 I decided to call it a day and try to get some sleep. Before I did I checked if my own result in Bedford had come in and the BBC website suggested the count was still going on but that this was a “99% certain Tory gain” according to the exit poll. Well that was pretty emphatic and I didn’t bother…

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Don’t let the bookies get away Scot free. Nota bene, for the purposes of this piece ‘wildcat referendum’ refers to a plebiscite held without a section 30 order. With life starting to get back some sort of normality I expect the usual political issues to rear their collective and individual heads soon. Primus inter pares is likely to be Scottish independence where in May the Indyref2 movement secured a majority at Holyrood. This piece isn’t looking at the result of…

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