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The Tories cannot go into the next election with 5m on the list One of the inevitable consequences of dealing with COVID has been the impact on those who have wanted the NHS for other reasons who are currently on waiting lists of one sort or another. It is estimated that there are 5m currently on them and this could be increasing all the time. Inevitably the primary focus has been on controlling the infection but as that pressure eases…

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7 years ago this month the Independent Inquiry into Child Sex Abuse was first announced. Cameron was PM, May Home Secretary and the Brexit referendum not even the teensiest cloud on the horizon. How time flies! After three Chairs, the Inquiry – under the chairmanship of its 4th Head, Professor Alexis Jay (who wrote the report on child abuse in Rotherham, published in August 2014) – has been quietly taking evidence and publishing a series of heart-breaking and devastatingly critical…

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Of all the institutions in the UK to get into a fight with then the RNLI is surely the one ministers would be best advised to keep well away from. Their job is often to risk their lives in order to save lives and the goodwill they have built up over a century and more is colossal. This is shown in the huge amount , £175m+, that the charity receives each year in legacies and other donations. The public buy…

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Could Tory punters be over-estimating their leader One of the big political betting features of the past couple of months is how much the betting markets over-stated Tory chances of retaining Chesham & Amersham and taking Batley & Spen. For long periods with the former there was a lot of money going the Tories as a 95% chance and even on the eve of the election you could have got 10/1 or better with Betfair on the LDs. This was…

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Both the Mail and the Express this morning try to paint a positive picture about COVID based on the declining numbers that we have seen in England over the past few days. Such headlines like the ones above might sell more copies or get clicks on their websites but are they being a bit too premature? We have been here before, of course, only for things to have to be reversed with the relaxation in the rules leading to more…

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There’s a new academic analysis just been published which seeks to measure the effect of Trump backing certain Republican contenders in the 2018 midterm elections. This is how the academics involved summarise their findings: We find that President Trump was more likely to endorse candidates with a higher pre-endorsement likelihood of winning and to endorse candidates in more competitive races, suggesting the president used endorsements strategically both to try and help Republican candidates win and to boost his reputation for…

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