A friend who takes a keen interest in politics on both sides of the pond and whose opinions I respect told me last night I was wrong when I was saying Donald Trump should still be the narrow favourite to win the presidential election, so yes Harris really is value on Betfair. They said the polls are now showing what the polls were saying for the last couple of years, the Americans wanted an election where Trump and Biden weren’t…
Whilst I think Donald Trump can win the election in November there’s now enough evidence to say it isn’t the foregone conclusion it was ten days or so ago. I think the value is backing Harris right now. TSE
I can see why Rachel Reeves is trying to blame the Tories for the public finances and the public appear to agree with her but that may still lead to Labour becoming unpopular. Fewer than one in six voters want taxes to rise whilst a plurality of voters think tax rises in the Autumn budget will be down to the choice of the Labour government which could see Labour polling in the 20s by the end of the year, when…
TSE
With Suella Braverman going all The Inbetweeners and saying her ten nominees go to another school and not standing we now have the final six for the Tory leadership contest, I was laying Suella Braverman for this contest so her announcement is news to my ears and betting portfolio. I still think Kemi Badenoch won’t win and possibly the soon to be favourites will be Robert Jenrick and Tom Tugendhat. A reminder this contest has over three months to go…
In short they’ve annoyed different voters for different reasons and winning them back without annoying groups will be a challenge. TSE
This time last week Joe Biden was the Democratic Party nominee. TSE
The Sunday Times are reporting that Listening is not just smart politics but an attempt to answer the charge made by some colleagues that Badenoch is more often on transmit than receive. Hanging over her head are claims that a “dirty dossier” on her has been circulated, something about which she posted on Twitter/X last week. Her team breathed a sigh of relief that a biography by the former peer Michael Ashcroft, extracts of which appeared this weekend, contained no…