As we move on from the holiday season the big political betting market is on when Johnson will no longer by PM. This goes up and down depending on the latest developments and all eyes will be on the PM as politics returns to normal after the holiday break. Essentially he need to re-build confidence in his leadership and to avoid some of the developments like his speech the the CBI that we saw earlier in December. But he’s far…
In 2017 the difference between the Tories continuing in office or a rainbow alliance was the performance of the Scottish Tories, in 1992 John Major doesn’t win a majority without the Scottish Tories, Scotland is a very important part of the fabric of the Union, so in close elections pay even more attention to Scotland. The SNP will be happy with this poll, they are polling 3 points higher than they did in the 2019 general election, an astonishing performance…
At this time of the year I look forward to seeing the predictions of the voters for the upcoming year as collated by Ipsos MORI. It looks pretty grim for Boris Johnson and Sir Keir Starmer with a majority of the public thinking Boris Johnson will not be the Prime Minister at the end of 2022 whilst more people think Starmer will not be Labour leader by the end of 2022 than do. Like Gordon Brown, Boris Johnson wanted to…
ACROSS 1 PM reveals all power corrupts without honour – right? (6,7) 8 Cable polled Labour grandee (4) 9 Angry substitute gets somewhere to sit in another place (10) 10 Conservative PM introduces a new set of rules enforced by ministers (5,3) 11 Endorse man holding suitable backing (6) 13 Government expert, covering Cold War’s origin, working with US President (6,4) 16 Remains here and laments the first couple leaving (4) 17 VAT announcement of Labour leader (4) 18 Dancer…
As regular readers will know, I’m a big fan of betting exchanges. Since they aren’t setting odds or taking risks from mis-pricings, they can easily offer a wider range of markets than their fixed odds brethren. There are two main exchanges currently, Betfair (by far the largest) and Smarkets (by far the best, but with mixed liquidity). However, there is a third exchange with good liquidity, many markets, and some appalling mis-pricings ripe for us to exploit. Sadly, we cannot…
So far I have only got a small bet on this market and it was placed some time ago. Although all the pressure today has been absolutely dreadful for Johnson I’m still not convinced that he’ll go of his own accord or that there will be a successful move amongst Conservative MP’s to get rid of him. It is very risky for MPs pressing ahead with a confidence vote because if Johnson wins it then there can be no similar…
One of the reasons that I use Opinium polls a lot for illustrative purposes is that the firm’s polling datasets are far more comprehensive than any other pollster and provide information not available elsewhere. The chart above is a case in point and illustrates the value of Opinium’s practice of including cross-heads showing responses of those polled in different sorts of constituency based on the GE2019 outcome. Here I am trying to show how things have moved since “Peak Boris”…