Part One – The bet Earlier this year, several PBers, including OGH, bet on there being a Labour lead by the end of the year. (They won, because of the opinion poll covered here. Well done!). More recently, Smarkets has established a market on the prospects of a Conservative lead by end of January (covered here). But this bet (‘the bet’) is perhaps the most interesting out there from a theoretical point of view. When it offers good value is…
LAB voters are now more likely to vote tactically One of the big political developments of 2021 has been the re-emergence of the LDs as an electoral force. Winning Chesham and Amersham in June always looked like an easier task given the party started in second place, C&A voted Remain and it was in striking distance of party strongholds on the M25 making it easier for them to flood the seat with activists during the campaign. North Shropshire was a…
This happened today about 12 miles from where I live. At the very minimum, the police should be involved.
Their targets are totally different For all the talk of some sort of arrangement between LAB and the LDs the electoral reality is that both parties will broadly be targeting very different sorts of seats at the next election with very little overlap. Because of the need to focus resources on seats they think they can win it is highly likely that both parties will be running almost token campaigns elsewhere. Sure candidates will be on the ballot but there…
This is the latest market from Smarkets and is almost directly in line with the “LAB poll lead in 2021” that was launched by the firm in July. That one proved a winner and one that contributed to making 2021 my most profitable ever. These are the market rules: This market relate to the headline, rounded percentage voting figures for UK or GB general election voting intention polls from the named pollsters. This market will be settled as a winner…
But 12% sticking with Johnson With just the possibility of a Tory leadership election then we should expect more “named leader” polling as featured in the Guardian this morning. This, I should state, is a very controversial form of polling that is likely to come under fire from supporters of those Tory figures, including Johnson, who come out of this badly. As well as the normal voting intention question voters were asked Voters were asked: “Please imagine that at the…
The latest CONHome survey gives her a big boost.
Terrible MRP findings for Johnson from Survation New research and MRP analysis on voting behaviour and standards conducted on behalf of 38 Degrees by Survation in conjunction with Professor Christopher Hanretty of Royal Holloway University has found that the Conservative majority won in 2019 could disappear, should the current voting trend continue. The projections result in a hung Parliament, with Labour the largest party by a significant margin. Two MRP polls were carried out and the table above shows the…