Polls – neck and neck: electoral votes – Bush noses ahead With the two contenders going into their final debate there’ve been seven new polls in the past two days and it’s neck and neck. Some have got Bush ahead – others have Kerry. The good news for Kerry is that Gallup which was reporting big leads for Bush is now showing the Democrat ahead. The electoral vote calculator, based on state polls, is now showing a small Bush lead….
Are Peter Kellner’s benchmarks correct? The political commentator and head of the YouGov polling organisation, Peter Kellner, has posted an article asking this question – How deep a hole are the Tories in? He starts:- The short answer is: very. Here are some benchmarks by which to judge the Conservatives. Their vote share in 1997: 31%. In 2001: 33%. Needed to form a bare majority in the House of Commons: at least 40%. Needed six months before the start of…
What will Westminster-lite do for the spread markets? Saturday’s opening of the Scottish Parliament building is a timely reminder that the boundary changes north of the border at Westminster will have a big impact at the General Election, particuarly on the number of Labour seats. Until now Scotand has sent 72 MPs to Westminster from constituencies that have an average of 55,000 electors compared with 70,000 in England. Boundary changes have reduced this to 59 and it’s been worked out…
Tony Blair – – June 8 2001 – – happier times One of the great dangers for General Election punters is to look at the forthcoming contest through the eyes of the last one. The big division that we see on this site is between those who think that Labour will continue to enjoy the massive advantage of getting many more seats in relation to votes casts compared with the other parties and those who don’t. But the election of…
Watch America’s “Political Futures” exchange With the big poll swings back to the challenger, John Kerry, all eyes are on the President to see if he can hold on. Will he win a second term when America votes in 22 days time or will he follow in the footsteps of his father and fail to get re-elected. A week and a half ago it looked pretty good for the President and you could have got 11/4 on Kerry with William…
WHITE HOUSE LATEST:….POLLS….PRICES….ELECTORAL VOTES With the ending of the party conference season in the UK and the US election barely three weeks away there’s lots of meat for political gamblers in the papers this morning. The Sunday Times’s Andrew Sullivan, in our view the best commentator on the US scene, has a good description of how the White House race is going and the impact of the TV debates. His piece starts- Presidential campaigns have issues, candidates and polls. They…
WHITE HOUSE LATEST:….POLLS….PRICES….ELECTORAL VOTES UPDATED 4.45 pm A poll, by Gallup, on last night’s second TV debate has those surveyed rating John Kerry as a narrow winner by 47% to 45%. When asked if they felt more favourable about the candidates after the debate, 38% were more favourable to Kerry and 20% were less favourable. The Bush figures were 31% and 20%. An ABC poll had Kerry the winner by 44-41%. The verdict of gamblers to the second of the…
Latest electoral vote estimate – Kerry 280 – Bush 239 The Democratic challenger, John Kerry, has moved into the lead on the electoral college calculator based on the latest state polls. This is the first time since the conventions that Kerry has been in this position and the news comes as he prepares for the second of the set-piece TV debates with President Bush. It was Kerry’s performance in the first debate eight days ago that turned the tide for…