First polls make Kerry a narrow winner in second TV debate

First polls make Kerry a narrow winner in second TV debate

UPDATED 4.45 pm
A poll, by Gallup, on last night’s second TV debate has those surveyed rating John Kerry as a narrow winner by 47% to 45%. When asked if they felt more favourable about the candidates after the debate, 38% were more favourable to Kerry and 20% were less favourable. The Bush figures were 31% and 20%.

An ABC poll had Kerry the winner by 44-41%.

The verdict of gamblers to the second of the three White House Race TV debates has been to harden the price on John Kerry.

    The winnings you would get on a successful Bush bet are about 10% higher than at this time yesterday.

The importance to George Bush of British support in the war was underlined when he referred to Tony Blair twice to counter Kerry’s attack that the President had gone into the Iraq war without international support.

Immediatly afterwards the verdict of the pundits was that this was a score draw but the betting edged to Kerry.

This chart with the price movements on the Iowa Electronic Market – where “political futures” are traded as if they were stocks – shows the long-term trend of the Kerry recovery. At one stage it was 73-27 Bush to Kerry. The latest figure is 56-44.

There’s little doubt that if there had been no TV debates then John Kerry would be languishing a long way behind. This has given him the platform where he’s on equal terms with George Bush.

    America has had TV debates since 1960. When will we get them in UK General Elections?



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