Will Bush try to capitalise on Britain’s move? Tony Blair must be praying that George Bush does not seek to make political capital out of the planned British troop move to support US forces in the north of Iraq. The idea that British lives might be at risk to help get Bush re-elected could damage the Prime Minister and Labour enormously. A sign of the level of unease was seen in the frosty response that Labour MPs gave to the…
Forget the bookie – you are better off with the building society? Even though Tony Blair has made it clear that he will only step down after he’s served another full term there’s a healthy market on who will replace him. Acording to this time-table it will be 2008 or 2009 before the Blairs move from Downing Sttreet to their new house in Connaught Square but the price of Gordon Brown being the successor is a staggering 1/3. That’s with…
Kerry moves up in state polls but down in the national ones In spite of a run of poor national polls the Kerry-Edwards campaign has today edged ahead of Bush in the latest estimate of electoral votes based on the most recent state polls. A new poll in the key swing state of Wisconsin shows that Kerry has overturned a 5% Bush lead and is now 1% ahead. The excellent electoral-vote.com puts the challenger ahead by the narrowest of margins…
You need more than 13/10 for value on the Democrat ticket? Three recent polls showing 3-4% leads for George Bush have knocked some of the confidence from the Kerry-Edwards campaign that seemed to be on a roll. One of them, Zogby, is showing a 4% Bush lead which is even more striking because for the past two months its methodology seems to have favoured Kerry. But two state polls, in New Jersey and Florida have given a boost to the…
bbc Is Tony Blair in danger of going the way of Neil Hamilton? With all the focus on the White House Race we have yet to catch up with with the plan by Martin Bell or another prominent TV journalist to run against Tony Blair in his Sedgefield constituency. The idea would be to repeat what Bell did in Tatton in 1997 where the Lib Dems and Labour pulled out to give him a clear run against Neil Hamilton. If…
bbc Is the best bet not to bet? With the UK General Election perhaps only seven months away it’s becoming harder and harder to find any good value bets. On the main Who’ll get most seats? the best that can be had on Labour is 1/5. It’s hard to call for any other party but if the pollsters are exaggerating Labour by as much as they were in 2001 then it is just possible that the bet might be a…
Three polls taken after last night’s final TV debate have made John Kerry the winner. Gallup gave it to the Democratic challenger by 52% to 39%, A CBS poll of uncommitted voters gave it to Kerry by 39% to 25% An ABC News poll made it Kerry by 42% to 41%. This poll consisted of 38% Republicans and 30% Democrats The latest electoral vote calculation , based on state polls, has Bush ahead. The price on Kerry has tightended and…
Would a proper apology take the wind out of Charles Kennedy’s sails? Given that Tony Blair is the master of stealing the policies of his opponents how is he going to deal with the Lib Dem threat? Just what announcement can we expect in the run up to the Election that will do for Charles Kennedy’s party what the EU referendum announcement did for the Tories? An intriguing thought is that he could, with his usual impeccable timing and with…