Could this man change the way we look at the General Election?

Could this man change the way we look at the General Election?

Martin Baxter is considering incorporating the tactical vote question The former Cambridge and City maths expert, Martin Baxter, (above) has announced on his site that he is considering trying to embrace an element on tactical voting within his famous Commons Seat Calculator. Over the years Martin has built up a formidable reputation with his calculator which is now the authoritive source for people wanting to work out what different vote shares mean in terms of Commons seats. His site also…

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Could the White House Race be decided here?

Could the White House Race be decided here?

cnn Get 4/1 on a prolonged legal battle With the White House race on a knife-edge you can now bet on whether we’ll have to wait until December 13 or beyond before the result is certified. If the result is as close as predicted then we could have a repetiton of 2000 when pro-longed legal wrangles over Florida finally ended in the Supreme Court (above). Tradesports – the Irish betting exchange that serves the US – is offering punters to…

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Is something happening with Osama?

Is something happening with Osama?

The money piles on an early capture There been a lot of activity on the Tradesports market on Osama Bin Laden being found by the end of the year and it is now listed as the betting exchange’s fifth most traded contract. It comes after the White House race itself and three NFL matches. The price has tightened in the past day to less than 6/1 on him being “neutralised”. The lay price has also gone up to 15/2. The…

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Will the pollsters be as wrong as they were in 2000?

Will the pollsters be as wrong as they were in 2000?

Is the pro-Bush bias repeating itself? With a daily diet of more than thirty new state and national polls predicting very different outcomes the big betting decisions are going to be based on which polling organisations have got it right. To guide us these were the final polls from 2000 to test against the actual result – which had Bush and Gore on 48% each. SEVEN final national polls had Bush upto 5% ahead. WRONG TWO final polls showed Bush…

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Get 5/1 on Osama being captured and Bush winning

Get 5/1 on Osama being captured and Bush winning

Will the world’s most wanted man be found before election day? For months people have speculated and joked that the icing on the cake of George Bush’s re-election campaign would be the capture of Osama Bin Laden – surprise, surprise – a few days before November 2. There’s even been a healthy betting market on the possibility. Tradesports – the Irish betting exchange that is focused on the US – has had a market for nearly a year on “Osama…

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We are sticking with our Kerry call

We are sticking with our Kerry call

We first called for John Kerry in mid-May and we stick with that. We had a little wobble in the period after the Republican Convention and before the TV debates but we now firmly believe that the Democratic ticket is good value at current prices. The 8/5 you can now get on Kerry is out of proportion to the risk that he will lose. With new state and national polls coming out almost by the hour it’s getting hard to…

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Could Michael Howard win by conceding that he will lose?

Could Michael Howard win by conceding that he will lose?

Will the Tories’s new Campaign Chief adopt his winning Australian strategies? The appointment of the Australian campaigning guru, Lynton Crosby, as the Conservative’s Election campaign director should cause all political gamblers to look closely at their General Election betting. For Crosby was the strategist behind the remarkable campaign in 1996 when the Australian Liberal party pulled off a surprise victory in the General Election there by all but conceding that the party had no chance of beating the Government of…

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Prime Minister Boris Johnson – the money goes on!

Prime Minister Boris Johnson – the money goes on!

Will he make it to Number 10 within a decade? After the row over the comments about Liverpudlians in the Specator, the magazine that he edits, the Tory MP, Boris Johnson, has been backed to become Prime Minister on or before December 31, 2014 with William Hill at 66/1. There’s also money going on him 25/1 with Hills and 33/1 with PaddyPower to become the next Leader of the Conservative Party. ‘We have been a little surprised to take several…

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