Sharp move to Kerry after Iraq explosives video Betting on the US election on both sides of the Atlantic has taken a sharp turn to John Kerry after ABC News screen a video (above) purporting to show US troops with the missing Iraqi explosives nine days after Baghdad fell. The pro-War former Bush supporter and Sunday Times columnist, Andrew Sullivan, describes it like this – What we’re seeing is the slow exposure of the reality of the Iraq war. No:…
Betfair Bush UPDATED – 0200 BST Friday There’ve been big moves against George Bush on the Betfair betting exchange following revelations on ABC TV that one of its crews had filmed the missing explosives in Iraq nine days after the fall of the country. This starts. The strongest evidence to date indicates that conventional explosives missing from Iraq’s Al-Qaqaa installation disappeared after the United States had taken control of Iraq. Barrels inside the Al-Qaqaa facility appear on videotape shot by…
Given the impact that the rise of UKIP has had on UK politics in the past six months any move or split within the party has to be taken seriously. With both Labour and the Tories polling in the 30s small shifts in support could have a huge impact on the General Election. Yesterday’s ICM poll recorded support for UKIP up 1% at 4%. With its most public figure calling his party “barmy” then any reduction in the national support…
Betfair George Bush – UPDATED 8am BST Thursday With the two daily tracking polls showing further movement to Kerry there’s been a big push on the betting markets in his direction. The TIPP daily survey has moved from a 6% Bush lead to a 4% one while Zogby’s tracking number has moved from a 3% Bush lead to a margin of just one point. The chart above shows how the £3m Betfair betting exchange market has moved and the trend…
We publish this article not because we think that it will happen but to demonstrate how with support for the two main parties in the 30s a totally different dynamic will apply at the next election and issues like polling accuracy and the tactical unwind will become even more critical. Last time Labour was so far ahead that inflated leads did not matter. Now they do. Today’s ICM poll in the Guardian – LAB 37% CON 31% LIBD 23% –…
Three of the latest five national opinion polls on the White House race have Kerry in the lead according to the new round-up just out. The polls are: Kerry 49 Bush 47 – DCorps Kerry 46 Bush 49 – Zogby Kerry 49 Bush 48 – ABC Kerry 50 Bush 48 – Washington Post Kerry 43 Bush 49 – TIPP The latest electoral vote calculations based on state polls have it Kerry 247 to Bush 286. The Slate.com score-chart has it…
With three new national polls puting Bush aread, two giving it to Kerry, and one recording a tie the race for the White House is on a knife-edge. The big problem for the Democrats is that one of the polls has an 8% Bush lead while another has it at 5%. The two polls showing Kerry ahead put the margin at 1%. There’s no doubt that Bill Clinton’s entry into the campaign has been a boost for Kerry and this…
Or will they benefit from the UKIP leadership hiatus? After almost three weeks without any UK national polls ICM, MORI and YouGov should be out in the next few days hopefully giving a clearer view of what the public is thinking than surveys taken at party conference time. Four years ago the end-October/early November surveys proved to be a good pointer to the election result the following June. Will the same happen this time? The Tories. Are they still in…